Alzheimers Disease And Dimentia Health And Social Care Essay

Normally, Alzheimer disease occurs after 60 old ages old. The chance increases as one gets older. This is a familial disease. The hazard one will acquire Alzheimer additions after 70 old ages old. Survey shows that people over 65 old ages old that have Alzheimer are 10 % higher and Alzhiemr ‘s patients of over 85 have 50 % . Now, the Numberss of Americans who have Alzheimer ‘s disease are more than 4.5 million. The Numberss are predicted to raise to 13.2 million by 2050. Approximately 350,000 new instances of Alzheimer ‘s disease are diagnosed each twelvemonth and 59,000 victims dice. ( 2 ) Figure 2 shows Numberss of people in the US with Alzheimer ‘s disease for diffreant age groups in 2000 and in the hereafter, 2030 and 2050. ( 2 ) So far, there is no intervention for Alzheimer disease. However, I think that by utilizing drugs, we can forestall the symptoms from acquiring worse for a scope of clip. In this study, I would wish to discourse about this solution. In Alzheimer ‘s disease, there is a deficit of acetylcholine, the encephalon chemical involved in memory and acquisition. For many old ages, physicians have prescribed a drug called tacrine that elevates degrees of acetylcholine by barricading the activity of acetylcholine, the enzyme that breaks down it. -Better Nutrition In my sentiment, by the utilizing of cholinesterase inhibitors, the actions of the enzyme cholinesterase to interrupt down acetylcholine are impeded and become normal. Hence, the nervus cells in the encephalon have more acetylcholine. ( 4 ) As a consequence of this, new memories may go easier to organize. However, cholinesterase inhibitors do non change by reversal back the loss and destroy of acetylcholine in the encephalon. So, this medical specialty merely helps to forestall the symptoms from acquiring worse but does non forestall the patterned advance of the disease. Cholinesterase inhibitors are used to handle mild to chair Alzheimer. One groundss of this is four types of cholinesterase inhibitors are available get downing mid-2000. The drigs that are used are donepezil ( AriceptA ® ) , rivastigmine ( ExelonA ® ) , galantamine ( ReminyA ® ) , and tacrine ( CognexA ® ) . However, merely tacrine ( Razadyne – antecedently called Reminyl ) are used by most doctors as tacrine ( Cognex ) has more unwanted side effects than the donepezil hydrochloride rivastigmine and galantamine. By the manner, merely rivastigmine and galantamine are merely approved by the FDA for mild to chair Alzheimer ‘s disease, while donepezil is approved for mild, moderate, and terrible Alzheimer ‘s disease.. ( 5 ) B ) Memantine Besides, I think that another drug that could be used to handle Alzheimer ‘s patients is memantine. Memantine is believed to be able to modulate glutamate, an of import encephalon chemical. This drug ‘s chief consequence is to detain patterned advance of some of the symptoms of moderate to severe Alzheimer Disease ( AD ) . Memantine, an NMDA receptor adversary, Plants on the glutamatergic system. It does this by barricading NMDA glutamate receptors and therefore suppress overstimulation by glutamate. It decreases the consequence of extra glutamate activate nervus cells. It can barricade consequence of extra glutamate and reconstruct back physiological signal transmittal. As a consequence, signal sensing is stabilized and signal sensing is enabled. Excess glutamate has bad effects on encephalon as it, Masks signal transmittal Prevented sensing of signal in NMDA receptor Deteriorate nervus cells. Death of encephalon cells, and therefore Alzheimer ‘s. Although memantine is non proven to decelerate down patterned advance in Alzheimer disease, nevertheless the symptoms of Alzheimer do lessening. Studies show that patients with Alzheimer who take memantine can care for themselves better than patients on sugar pills ( placebos ) . With the intervention of memantine, patients can transport out normal activities a little longer than the patients without the intervention of memantine. For case, with the medicine, memantine may assist a patient with terrible Alzheimer comb the hair themselves, brash their dentitions and bath themselves for several months. This decreases the load for both the health professional and patients. In my sentiment, as NMDA adversary and cholinesterase inhibitors work really otherwise, they can be combined to be used together.EffectivenessSurvey shows that when the ChEIs was given to th3 patients, the period of looking for NH admittance delayed ( HR: 0.37, 95 % CI 0.27 to 0.49 ) compared with those who ne'er used cognitive foils while with the add-on of memantine the consequence is significantly augmented ( HR: 0.29, 95 % CI 0.11 to 0.72 ) ( memantine+ChEI V ChEI entirely ) . ChEIs entirely, or in combination with memantine had no important association on clip to decease. ( 12 ) Figure 4 shows that the utilizing of memantine with ChEI to the intervention of AD widening clip to nursing place admittance. ( 13 ) Figure 5 show the effects of utilizing of rivastigmine as approved by the FDA for mild to chair Alzheimer ‘s disease. ( 14 )Social and economic DeductionsEconomic costsNumbers vary between surveies but dementedness costs worldwide have been calculated around $ 160A billion, while costs of Alzheimer in the United States may be $ 100A billion each twelvemonth. ( 6 ) One of the economic deductions that I have brush is that Alzheimer disease is the most dearly-won disease which their cost is besides high-rising. In my position, with the addition of ageing of society, the cost besides increases. I can split the cost related to this disease into few phases that are direct costs in medical signifier, like nursing place attention, or direct non-medical costs, twenty-four hours attention and nonmedical costs like lost of productiveness of both patients and health professional. I genuinely believe that the life cost becomes highly high when health professional ‘s lost earning due to long term daily care given. This is shown when the disease becomes worse when advancements, which the patients need longer clip to be cared for and higher cost for nursing-care is needed.Behavioral alterationAs people with Alzheimer frequently develop memory job at the early phase, I think that they have trouble in retrieving late learned facts, activities and unable t o construe new information. Sing the personality, they become apathy, less self-generated and tend to insulate themselves. So, I believe that with the patterned advance of the disease, troubles in acquisition and memory addition. They are unable to comprehend or hold troubles with linguistic communication, have jobs in abstract thought and in other rational maps. At this phase their older memory is non really much affected but has troubles in new memory. The individual begins to hold job when working measures, with understanding the transition and be aftering their day-to-day activities. Turning to their behaviour, they may go aggressive, dying and leery. They tend to misinterpret what they see or what they hear. In my sentiment, this can take to misconstruing of both the patients and care-giver. The Alzheimer ‘s Answer Book: Professional Answers to More Than 250 Questions†¦ Figure 4 shows the behavioural alteration of an Alzheimer ‘s patient from normal, early, moderate to severe Alzheimer.Benefitsâ€Å" The research workers report that the test consequences indicate cholinesterase inhibitors led to a statistically important decrease in behavioural and psychological symptoms such as aggression, rolling or paranoia when utilizing the same dose as administered for bettering cognitive damage. â€Å" ( 12 ) I believe pharmaceutical used as a method of intervention do hold benefits. The drugs can forestall the symptoms from come oning within a limited clip and supply patients with comfort and self-respect. Besides, as the symptoms are prevented from acquiring worse within a scope of clip, the patient can be independent for a longer period of clip. This can diminish the care-giving load every bit good as the lovingness cost. Cholinesterase inhibitors are used for mild to chair AD. It helps the symptoms from worsen and command some behavioural features. ( 7 )HazardThe most common side effects from taking cholinesterase inhibitors ( ChEIs ) are nausea, purging and increased frequence of intestine motions. These are due to cholinergic extra. Among the users, 10-20 % of mild and terrible patient will treat those side-effects. ( 6 )For the secondary side-effects, they are muscle spasms, bosom rate is decreased. Besides, it besides decreases one ‘s appetency and weight and increased stoma chic acid production in some patients.However, Between 75 % and 90 % of patients will digest curative doses of ChEIs. ( 5 ) Figure 6 shows the hazards of taking cholinesterase inhibitors. In my sentiment, the hazards of cholinesterase inhibitors are non life endangering. They may be take the incommodiousness to the patient.This is because of the increasing of acetylcholine in the encephalon. Hence, I think that patients should take cholinesterase inhibitors to as the benefits compensate the hazards. Besides, memantine causes hallucinations, confusion, giddiness, concern and weariness. ( 6 ) In add-on, it can do irregularity, back hurting, addition in blood force per unit area, purging, trouble in take a breathing and coughing. The side effects are normally minor and do non necessitate medical intervention. However, if you have hallucinations, allergic reaction, or trouble in external respiration, you should travel in front for physician. For mild Alzheimer ‘s patients, they frequently feel that the drugs are gross outing and unneeded. This cause the symptoms become worse and they finally labeled as centrist or terrible patients. In my sentiment, the health professionals and patients have to recognize the hazards of memantine before and during taking it for the better intervention for Alzheimer ‘s patients.Alternate solutionsPsychosocial intercessionPsychosocial intercession is a room designed for centripetal integrating therapy, which is an emotion-oriented psychosocial intercession for dementedness ‘s patients.Psychosocial intercessions can be classified into ( 6 ) Behavioural intercessions which tend to place and cut down the ancestors and consequence of job behavior. Behavioural intercession is non helpful in cut downing rolling but can assist in incontinency. Emotion-oriented intercessions which include reminiscence therapy ( RT ) that involved treatment of past experience separately or in a group, with the aid of exposure, music or sound recordings and their yesteryear ‘s familiar points. This therapy is found to be helpful in knowledge and temper. proof therapy that based on credence of world and personal truth of past experience to assist to better in dementedness while centripetal integrating is exercising that will assist in stimulation. supportive psychotherapeutics which is helpful in assisting mildly impaired Alzheimer patients to set their unwellnesss. centripetal integrating ( snoezelen ) and simulated presence therapy ( SPT ) which used the method recording and playing the sound and voice of closed relation to the Alzheimer patients. cognition-oriented which included Reality orientation which asks the patients to show the information about their topographic point, milieus, relations or household. Cognitive retraining ( decrease of cognitive shortages ) which improved the impaired ability by exerting their head. From this intervention, cognitive abilities have been improved. Stimulation-oriented attacks which consists of art, music and pet therapies, exercising, and any other sorts of recreational activities. This sort of intervention has most betterment in the facet of behavior, temper, and, to a lesser extent, map.Surgery in cistron therapyâ€Å" The scientists stress that their work is still at a really early phase. So far they have merely worked on a little figure of patients, and the trials have been designed to happen out whether the technique is safe, instead than effectual. However, the early indicants suggest that it might assist to decelerate the promotion of disease. â€Å" ~BBC news~ ( 9 )Besides from drugs, Alzheimer can now be treated by surgery. This surgery is done by surgically implanted modified tissue into the encephalon of Alzheimer patients and is known as cistron therapy protocol for Alzheimer ‘s disease. The surgery is done on a 60-year-old Caucasic adult female in the early phases of Alzheimer ‘s disease and she reco vered good. This surgery usage human cistron therapy to handle Alzheimer. It prevents cell loss in Alzheimer by presenting a natural brain-survival molecule known as nervus growing factor ( NGF ) to the deceasing cells in the encephalon. ( 8 ) It is done by roll uping little sample of patients ain skin cells and infixing an stray NGF cistrons ( of course happening proteins found in the encephalons of all vertebrate animate beings ) from nervous system. The genetically engineered cells were cultured for three months. As they underwent mitosis, they produced big measures of NGF. After corroborating the cistrons has no harmful contaminations, it was implant into the patients ‘ encephalon. Although it can non wholly cures the disease, but it is hoped to protect and even reconstruct certain encephalon cells and relieve some symptoms, such as short-run memory loss, for a longer period or may be few old ages. This intervention targets a group of cells located deep in a encephalon ‘s country known as cholinergic system which map as back uping memory and cognitive map as it is the devolution of this system which leads to Alzheimer ‘s. By forestalling inordinate loss of this type of cells, Alzheimer ‘s disease can be improved. ( 8 ) Evaluation Beginning 1 I found that hypertext transfer protocol: //alzheimers.boomja.com/Alzheimer % 27s-Treatments — General-Overview-30775.html is really dependable and factual as it is a library for Alzheimer, which it collects information about Alzheimer organize several web site. It is the aggregation of information about Alzheimer, hence is called internet library of Alzheimer. Besides, new resources are added every twenty-four hours, like scientific publications, articles, and links to helpful sites, so it is really accurate and up-to-date. The website hypertext transfer protocol: //www.healia.com/healthguide/guides/alzheimers/what-treatments-are-available where it collects information from is besides really dependable as it is certified by the HONcode criterion for trusty wellness information.

Children’s Health Fund

CHF began as an idea and then evolved into a large program. Dr. Redlener wanted to be part of the healthcare solution, not contributing to the problem. (Brown, DeHayes, Hoffer, Martin and Perkins, 2012). Delivering medical care to rural areas, working earthquake relief and other noteworthy deeds made Dr. Redlener realize that with some support he could help the under privileged. (Brown, et. al, 2012). After reading the case study, I realized that mobile medical clinics will always be needed. I have worked Hurricane cleanup and know that mobile food trucks, mobile Laundromats, showers and medical care is needed immediately. Mobile medical units would give volunteers the equipment needed to treat people in need during natural disasters and to the under privilaged. At the same time mobile medical clinics could be used to assist in the growing AIDS epidemic, early detection of breast cancer, teen pregnancy, drug addiction, and assist in the number one health problem in the United States, obesity. Challenges facing CHF is how to provide expert medical care to under privileged individuals living in rural areas, homeless shelters, and poverty stricken areas. These challenges include continuation of funding, access to accurate patient medical records, limitations in telecommunications networks and medical databases, and healthcare providers. So what is the solution to getting expert medical care to the under privileged? More mobile medical clinics and stationary clinics located within the needed areas? However, then we encounter the issue of cost. I see the solution as having medical students serve part of their residency or their training by assisting in the mobile medical clinics. If this was part of their training, then CHF cut their budget by not having to pay for all the provider services. An advantage is free labor, but a disadvantage is they are not fully trained, which could be detrimental to the cause. Retired doctors and nurses who want to work a few days a week would be a great asset while letting them keep up their skills. The risks that I see with either of these solutions is that the interns have not completed their training and the older group may not be as techno savvy as they need to complete the tasks. Allocations from the government would help with some of the financial aspects. The rest would have to come from private donations. However, the implementation of state and federal legislation will bring medical coverage to an additional 30 million uninsured Americans. I don’t believe that private donations and federal and state funding will cover all the under privileged we currently have and then to add an additional 30 million will only add to the burden of funding. Our government is cutting the budget currently, so any money from state or federal funding may not last for long. The Affordable Care Act is changing the way health care is paid. Hospitals will have to embrace innovation to cut costs and deliver quality medical care. Hospitals, clinics, and doctors need to work together with the public to advocate needed changes in respect to reimbursements and privacy issues. I believe that the new HITECH regulations will provide the accurate patient files that are needed to provide the best care possible. Innovations in technology will soon solve the problems with limitations in telecommunications networks. Embracing new technology will allow providers access to patient records and accurate accounting of current treatments. Taking the time to learn all this new technology may be challenging at first but will reward both providers and patients as time passes. Currently the government has been granting hospitals and clinics millions of dollars to upgrade existing medical technology and IT programs. A central database will reduce duplication of patient’s records, treatments, billing and other medical services. Security is the biggest disadvantage that has Americans worrying about who will be allowed to see their medical history. I don’t feel this is any more insecure than banking online or purchasing merchandise. Databases from the federal government to credit card companies have been hacked. We just have to believe that our information will be safeguarded. Are there newer more affordable network communications solutions that should be tried? Cloud computing, social networks and big data analytics are innovations that can help network communications now by lowering cost, improving outcomes and increasing access to medical care. (mHealth, 2012). Watch any commercial and you will see that technology innovations are growing by leaps and bounds. No sooner do you purchase a Smartphone or computer when something ewer comes out. Medical residents who use new technology, such as tablets are more efficient, they save about an hour a day and treatments and prescriptions are ordered earlier. (Hyek, n. d. ). The use of mobile devices to access medical records, check real-time vital signs or test results translates into direct improvement in treatment and outcomes. (mHealth, 2012). The invention and innov ation of faster, cheaper, portable, and more powerful computers make it an affordable solution to communications. Physicians on call can receive images and start the treatment before they arrive at the hospital. The time saved using portable devices will make hospital staffs more efficient, treatment quicker, and save lives. CHF should upgrade their systems with portable devices that are smaller, faster and works in remote areas. Will the federal government’s HITECH stimulus funds and Meaningful Use standards lead to better software integration solutions? Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Ace (HITECH) is a government program established to advance the use of health information technology to save lives and reduce costs. (Blumenthal, 2010). The HITECH stimulus will definitely lead to better software. Incentive bonuses are being provided to providers who meet the â€Å"meaningful use† of electronic health records (EHR) adoption. (Blumenthal, 2010). Medical practices of the future will have to use EHR to stay in practice. Providers currently have their own systems of electronic health records but they are not connected to other providers, clinics or hospitals. As a military Soldier our medical history is linked. We still hand carry our medical records from duty station to duty station, but the system will allow my current doctor to see tests and reports from my last duty assignment. The problem is that if I’m sent to a civilian medical facility for additional tests, it is not entered into our system and I have to request paper copies of the documents. It will take some time but I do believe that HITECH will eventually evolve into a nationwide program that will link all patient data. This will ensure that patients are no longer over medicated or jumping from doctor to doctor to get their next fix of prescription drugs. A National Health Information Network (NHIN) is being developed to facilitate the exchange of health information among EHRs. HITECH is a complex health information system for the 21st-century but will continue to evolve as it is implemented, but will require the support and patience of providers and patients to be successful. (Blumenthal, 2010). â€Å"The HITECH Act’s programs strive to create an electronic circulatory system for health information that nourishes the practice of medicine, research, and public health, making health care professionals better at what they do and the American people healthier. † (Blumenthal, 2010, para 17). Will the increase in software adoptions at physician offices make it more difficult for him to retain his staff? I believe that the increase of software adoptions will make it difficult for doctors to retain their staff. The military has become much computerized, what use to take several clerks to handle can now be completed by one clerk. Yes, we got rid of some clerks but had to train Soldiers in information technology to resolve issues and problems. Providers will need less staff to schedule, change or cancel appointments, but will need to hire employees proficient in computers. Each employee will experience different views on implementing new technology. . (Rivers, Blake, & Lindgren n. d. ). Some will welcome the changes as a way to acquire additional knowledge, while others may see this as an intrusion into their routine. (Rivers, et. al, n. d. ). Providers will be able to electronically transmit prescriptions from their desk to the pharmacy. Technology can increase the efficiency and effectiveness of patient care. Wireless headsets allow nurses to answer phones no matter where they are. My dad is receiving in home health care and they bring a laptop to chart his progress, once back at their office, they send the chart to the doctor, which is saving valuable time. Providers use technology daily in the form of personal data assistants (PDAs), tablets, and Smartphone’s. (Rivers, et. al, n. d. ). These devices eradicate duplicate charting, test for drug interactions, compute dosages, schedule procedures, order medicine and computerize other clinical duties, therefore reducing the possibility of errors and increasing patient wellbeing. Rivers, et. al, n. d. ). What combination of conditions could emerge that render the mobile medical clinic model obsolete? The biggest thing that could render mobile medical clinics obsolete is the use of mobile networks to enhance healthcare (mHealth). Help from technology megatrends, such as social networking, cloud computing and big data analytics will transform global health care. (mHealth, 2012). â€Å"The evolving mHealth vis ion is patient-centric but with information services and data analytics at its core. † (mHealth, 2012, P. 7, para 2). Mobile phone applications will have the ability to collect, store, analyze and upload environmental and personal data to healthcare providers to assist in illness prevention and treatment. (FREng, Sherrington, Dicks, Gray, and Chang, 2011). mHealth would allow patients to be monitored from home to avoid hospital or residential stays which might lower health costs. (FREng, et. al, 2011). The increased awareness and attention to prevention, education, and wellness will produce patients with fewer medical issues and knowledge of their medical history. Mobile networks are continually upgrading their data capacity which includes high-resolution images, video and large file exchanges. (FREng, et. al, 2011). We use our smart phones for banking, trading stocks, finding the cheapest gas, and now we want to make doctor appointments, pay the doctors bill and access our medical records. In 2011, over 44 million health-related medical applications were downloaded. (Hyek, 2012. ). Smart mobility is now enabling patients to control our electronic medical records while incorporating wellness and fitness applications into our lifestyle. (mHealth, 2012).

Only the Strong Survive

January 17, 2013 Industry Report Shipbuilding (Neutral) Only the strong survive Offshore orders to drive growth The shipbuilding industry is in a situation similar to that of 2002. In 2013, plunging order volume and weak new building prices are fueling intensifying competition. In 2002, shipbuilding shares rose because of an increase in orders, but then quickly fell on concerns over weak new building prices, which caused earnings to stagnate. For a period in 2002, shipbuilders went into red. There is a big difference between the shipbuilding market of 2002 and 2013, however.In 2013, a few, major shipbuilders with an edge in the construction of offshore plants are expanding order backlogs due to growing demand for offshore plants. We anticipate investments in offshore E&P projects will continue to rise, as we expect oil prices will remain high. We anticipate major shipbuilders will offset sluggishness in the commercial vessels market with their offshore-plant businesses. Daewoo Securi ties Co. , Ltd. Ki-jong Sung +822-768-3263 kijong. [email  protected] com Ryan Kang +822-768-3065 ryan. [email  protected] om Three major catalysts in 2013 1) Increase in new orders despite depressed market conditions. 2) Improved cash flow and balance sheets. 3) Growing competitive gap between shipbuilders due to accelerated restructuring. Historic low P/B presents attractive valuations We expect Korean shipbuilders will be able to maintain their competitive edge regardless of the depressed shipbuilding market. Although shipbuilding shares currently trade at a P/B of 1. 0x, we believe they have the potential trade at a P/B of 1. 2x.We recommend Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS/Buy/TP: W280,000), and Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS/Buy/TP: W46,200) out of the large shipbuilders. We find Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620 KS/Buy/TP: W148,000) to be the best among shipbuilders that focus on mid-to-small vessels. We raise our target price on Samsung Heavy Industries by 5% to W46, 200 to reflect its stable earnings and solid order flow; however, we downgrade our rating of Hanjin Heavy I&C (097230 KS/Hold) from Trading Buy to Hold. Three major domestic shipbuildersE cash flow and share performance (Wbn) 10,000 Avg. ash flow of major shipbuilders (L) Avg. share price of major shipbuilders (R) (1/31/2005=100) 1,000 6,000 800 600 2,000 400 -2,000 200 -6,000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 13 14 14F 0 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U. S. January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Figure 1. New orders and newbuilding price for commercial vessels (mnCGT) 100 New orders (L) Newbuilding price (R) 80 180 160 60 140 40 120 20 100 80 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F (1988=100) 200 Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 2. Three major domestic shipbuildersE order trend and forecast (Wbn) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F Shipbuilding Non-shipbuilding Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 3. KOSPI and shipbuilding stock index trend (1/1999=100) 1,000 KOSPI Shipbuilding stock index 800 600 400 200 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 13 14F 14 Source: KDB Daewoo Securities ResearchKDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Three major catalysts in 2013 1. New orders for major Korean shipbuilders to increase sharply In 2013, we expect major Korean shipbuilders will see sharp increases in new orders. Despite intensifying competition, these companies have demonstrated competitive advantages in the construction of large commercial vessels and offshore plants. We expect demand for LNG carriers will remain sound, and anticipate orders for mega-containerships will also increase.We expect the latter to be driven by small- and mid-sized shipping companies improving their competitiveness through greater efficiency. We also expect shipbuilders will be forced to take new orders at lower-than-normal prices because of the dearth of order backlogs for commercial vessels. We forecast the number of bids and orders for large offshore-plant construction projects to increase for each company in 2013. In particular, we expect orders for certain high-priced vessels, including FPSO and LNG FPSO, to increase. 2.Improved cashflow and balance sheets Since 2009, shipbuilders have taken out more loans for more orders as the proportion of heavy-tail payments (characterized by small advance payments) has increased. On a positive note, however, we expect shipbuilder loans to decrease (thus improving cashflow) as these contracts are paid off toward late 2013. We believe share prices will improve (despite concerns about lower-priced orders) thanks to increasing orders, and improved cashflow. Share prices for shipbuilders will be influenced by cashflow.Despite intensifying market competition, we anticipa te Hyundai Mipo Dockyard will take an increasing amount of orders, even though some will be lower-priced. 3. Second phase of restructuring to further consolidate industry We anticipate the shipbuilding market will remain weak due to the global economic downturn, and the tightening of ship financing. We project the current, still-surviving shipbuilding companies will aggressively seek new orders to strengthen backlogs. We believe the winners of this second phase of restructuring will benefit significantly when the market recovers.Amid the current drop in vessel construction, the percentage of bulk carriers and tankers (out of total orders) has decreased significantly, while the percentage of megacontainerships and LNG carriers has increased. We expect these trends will continue in 2013. We also anticipate major Korean shipbuilders will be able to develop new types of vessels boasting improved efficiency, which will strengthen these companiesE competitiveness. Risk factors Earnings at shipbuilders will not recover easily, due to orders at lower-than-normal prices and won appreciation. In order to secure backlogs, hipbuilders will need to take low price orders. Another risk factor is won appreciation, but at current levels, we believe risks are limited, thanks to Korean shipbuildersE technological edge, and dollar denominated payment for raw materials, which accounts for 40% of total raw material purchase. KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Figure 4. Three major domestic shipbuildersE cash flow and share performance (Wbn) 10,000 Avg. cash flow of major shipbuilders (L) Avg. share price of major shipbuilders (R) (1/31/2005=100) 1,000 6,000 800 600 2,000 400 -2,000 00 -6,000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 13 14 14F 0 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 5. Korean and Chinese shipbuildersE restructuring (No. of shipuilders) 200 Korea China 160 197 120 -88. 3% 80 40 24 23 -66. 7% 8 0 2008 2012 Source: Clarkson, press re lease, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 6. Comparison of currency rates (10/2/2012=100) 105 US$/W JPY100/W EUR/W RMB/W 100 95 90 85 80 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 4 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Investment strategy & valuationWe believe the P/B of KoreaEs top 3 shipbuilders, which is trading at around 1. 0x, should rebound to 1. 2x, a level seen historically as the low, thanks to the aforementioned three major catalysts. In addition, the ROE of shipbuildersE is projected to improve to 19%. And as most new orders are expected in 1H, shares are likely to show strong performance in the same period. The relative share performance of global shipbuilders has changed. Thanks to the rising proportion of offshore orders, Korean shipbuilders and Hyundai Mipo Dockyard are now grouped together with Keppl Corp. nd Sembcorp Marine (Singapore companies specialized in offshore plant). In light of the ongoing eurozone cris is and unstable global economy, shipbuilding shares are expected to trade between a P/B of 1. 0x~1. 3x. Although we believe the shares have bottomed, we do not expect a long term recovery until new building prices rebound in earnest. We suggest accumulating the shares near a P/B of 1. 0x. Shipbuilding shares will likely begin to recover full-swing from 2014, when the market starts to turnaround, along with increased orders for commercial vessels, improved cashflow, and earnings recovery.Figure 7. Major shipbuildersE ROE, P/B trends (Market cap, Wtr) 4. 0x (%) 50 3. 0x 40 90 60 2. 0x 30 20 30 1. 0x 10 0 05 07 09 11 13 13F 0 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 8. Relative share performances of major shipbuilders (-1Y=100) 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 HHI DSME HMD Guangzhou Shipyard Keppel Corp. SHI STX Offshore & Shipbuilding Rongsheng Heavy Sembcorp Marine Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Sec urities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 5 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Figure 9.New order trends (US$bn) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 HHI SHI HMD Figure 10. Order backlog trends (US$bn) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 HHI SHI HMD Source: Company Data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company Data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 11. Sales breakdown by business unit (Wtr) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 HHI 11 10 SHI 11 Construction Other Refinery Finance Green energy Electro electric systems Construction equipment Engine & machinery Industrial plant & engineering Offshore & engineering Shipbuilding Figure 12. Hyundai Heavy IndustriesE P/B trend Market cap,Wbn) 42,000 35,000 28,000 21,000 14,000 7,000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 13 3. 0x 2. 5x 2. 0x 1. 5x 1. 0x Source: Company Data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 13. Samsung Heavy IndustriesE P/B trend (Market cap,Wbn) 14,000 12,00 0 10,000 8,000 1. 0x 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 13F 2. 0x 6. 0x 4. 0x Figure 14. Hyundai Mipo DockyardEs P/B trend (Market cap,Wbn) 10,000 2. 5x 8,000 1. 5x 6,000 2. 0x 1. 5x 4,000 1. 0x 2,000 0. 5x 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 13F Source: KDB Daewoo Securities ResearchSource: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 6 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Figure 15. Global new orders by vessel type (mnCGT) 25 LPG carrier LNG carrier Containership 20 Bulker Tanker 15 Figure 16. Newbuilding prices by vessel type (US$'000/TEU) 30 Containership (L) Tanker (R) Gas carrier (R) Bulker (R) (US$'000/DWT) 3 20 2 10 10 5 1 0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 12 13F 13 0 Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Clarkson, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 17. ROE-P/B comparison (P/B ,x) 3. 0 Figure 18.EPS growth-P/E comparison (P/E, x) 20 Keppel 2. 0 Sembcorp Mitsubishi HHI 1. 0 Guangzho u Sumitomo Mitsui (ROE, %) 0. 0 0 5 10 15 20 HMD S HI 15 Keppel 10 S HI Sumitomo Sembcorp HHI 5 (EPS growth, %) 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 19. Global shipbuildersE share performances (-1Y=100) 160 HHI Mitsui SHI Guangzhou HMD Sembcorp CSSC Keppel Figure 20. KOSPI and shipbuilding stock index (index) 8,000 Shipbuilding stock index KOSPI 140 6,000 120 4,000 100 2,000 80 60 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 7 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS) Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 280,000 Share Price (01/16/13, W) 227,500 Expected Return (%) 23. 1 EPS Growth (13F, %) 17. 6 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 19. 1 P/E (13F, x) 8. 5 Market P/E (13F, x) 9. 0 KOSPI 1,977. 45 Market Cap (Wbn) 17,290 Shares Ou tstanding (mn) 76 Avg Trading Volume (60D, ‘000) 229 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 51 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 1. Free Float (%) 59. 3 52-Week Low (W) 193,500 52-Week High (W) 346,500 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1. 46 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2. 1 Foreign Ownership (%) 19. 6 Major Shareholder(s) Mong-Jun Jung et al. (21. 31%) Treasury shares (19. 36%) NPS (5. 08%) Price Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -1. 7 -3. 8 -20. 7 Relative -0. 9 -12. 6 -27. 1 One step back for two steps forward ? ? ? Targeting orders of US$29. 7bn and revenues of W26. 9tr (non-consolidated) in 2013 Implemented a self-rescue plan for the first time in 40 years. Maintain Buy with TP of W280,000Maintain Buy with TP of W280,000 We maintain our Buy call on Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) with a target price of W280,000. HHI displayed weak share performance due to poor earnings and orders in 2012. However, we expect the company to record robust orders in 2013, boosted by a pickup in the offshore/onshore plant market. The companyEs earnings are anticipated to turn around in 2H13, while its cash flow should improve on massive orders and an increase in heavy-tail payments. HHIEs shares are trading at a 2013F P/E of 8. 5x and a P/B of 1. 0x, the lowest levels in the companyEs peer group.This tepid performance signals that weak 2012 orders and earnings results have been fully reflected. However, HHI has strong investment merits in 2013, as it is projected to win massive orders. Investment summary 1) The company exhibited poor orders across all business units last year, posting disappointing earnings results. In 2013, however, the company will be able to achieve its order target of US$29. 7bn in light of its strong determination to revamp its business structure. 2) The company is anticipated to receive massive offshore/onshore plant orders.In particular, the company will likely win orders for the Egina project (US$2. 5bn) and the Brass LNG project (US$3. 5bn) in 1Q. In a ddition, HHI is expected to bid for additional projects worth US$1-4bn; indeed, we believe the company will be aggressive in its order-taking efforts. 3) Orders for merchant ships, including mega containerships, LNG carriers, and LNG FSRU, will likely increase markedly in light of their superior competitiveness. 4) Exports of construction equipment and ultra-high voltage transformers should also increase on recoveries in the US and Chinese economies. ) The company has recently implemented a self-rescue plan for the first time in 40 years. While the number of applications for HHIEs early retirement plan (pushed through at end-2012) missed expectations, the company has subsequently carried out structural reform measures. We expect the companyEs long-term restructuring efforts to positively affect earnings going forward. Share price 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 KOSPI Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F Revenue (Wbn) 37,342 53,712 54,741 5 8,433 63,025 OP OP Margin (Wbn) (%) 5,532 14. 8 4,536 8. 4 2,485 4. 5 3,331 5. 7 3,782 6. NP (Wbn) 4,154 2,559 1,729 2,033 2,449 EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) 54,652 6,326 88 34. 5 8. 1 33,671 5,473 -504 16. 7 7. 6 22,750 3,469 -2,260 10. 2 10. 6 26,750 4,320 2,005 11. 1 8. 5 32,218 4,768 2,297 12. 2 7. 1 P/B (x) 2. 5 1. 3 1. 1 1. 0 0. 9 EV/EBITDA (x) 6. 5 5. 3 8. 5 6. 2 5. 2 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Daewoo Securities Research 8 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Hyundai Heavy Industries (009540 KS/Buy/TP: W280,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Wbn) Revenues Cost of Sales Gross Profit SG Expenses Operating Profit (Adj) Operating Profit Non-Operating Profit Net Financial Income Net Gain from Inv in Associates Pretax Profit Income Tax Profit from Continuing Operations Profit from Discontinued Operations Ne t Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests Total Comprehensive Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests EBITDA FCF (Free Cash Flow) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) 12/11 53,712 46,784 6,927 2,392 4,536 4,536 -659 52 -148 3,876 1,133 2,743 0 2,743 2,559 184 2,617 2,498 118 5,473 -504 10. 8. 4 4. 8 12/12F 54,741 49,759 4,981 2,496 2,485 2,485 110 233 -240 2,595 766 1,829 0 1,829 1,729 100 1,568 1,458 110 3,469 -2,260 6. 3 4. 5 3. 2 12/13F 58,433 52,473 5,960 2,630 3,331 3,331 -448 248 -200 2,882 749 2,133 0 2,133 2,033 100 1,872 1,762 110 4,320 2,005 7. 4 5. 7 3. 5 12/14F 63,025 56,408 6,618 2,836 3,782 3,782 -338 188 -150 3,444 895 2,549 0 2,549 2,449 100 2,288 2,178 110 4,768 2,297 7. 6 6. 0 3. 9 Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) Wbn) Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents AR & Other Receivables Inventories Other Current Assets Non-Current Assets Investments in Associates Property, Plant and Equipment Inta ngible Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities AP & Other Payables Short-Term Financial Liabilities Other Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Long-Term Financial Liabilities Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Controlling Interests Capital Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Non-Controlling Interests Stockholders' Equity 12/11 23,076 1,610 9,525 6,478 2,359 25,924 973 15,565 2,324 49,001 25,491 14,339 8,903 2,249 5,334 3,224 1,954 30,824 16,379 380 1,100 15,399 1,797 18,177 12/12F 25,628 1,888 10,237 6,897 2,737 24,553 916 15,706 2,290 50,181 23,183 11,605 9,060 2,518 7,460 5,550 1,755 30,643 17,624 380 1,100 16,894 1,915 19,538 12/13F 28,538 3,517 10,927 7,304 2,922 24,365 716 15,703 2,264 52,903 24,136 12,388 9,060 2,688 7,602 5,550 1,896 31,737 19,141 380 1,100 18,682 2,025 21,166 12/14F 30,153 3,469 11,786 7,878 3,151 24,277 566 15,700 2,240 54,430 24,320 13,361 8,060 2,899 6,901 4,550 2,195 31,221 21,074 380 1,100 20,885 2,135 23,208 Cash Flows (Summariz ed) Wbn) Cash Flows from Op Activities Net Profit Non-Cash Income and Expense Depreciation Amortization Others Chg in Working Capital Chg in AR & Other Receivables Chg in Inventories Chg in AP & Other Payables Income Tax Paid Cash Flows from Inv Activities Chg in PP&E Chg in Intangible Assets Chg in Financial Assets Others Cash Flows from Fin Activities Chg in Financial Liabilities Chg in Equity Dividends Paid Others Increase (Decrease) in Cash Beginning Balance Ending Balance 12/11 276 2,743 3,078 853 85 -860 -4,072 -178 -1,442 -364 -1,474 -888 -1,583 -67 -34 796 347 1,206 0 -411 -448 -269 1,879 1,610 12/12F -1,972 1,829 1,907 899 85 107 -4,572 -512 -453 -3,197 -1,136 -544 -1,074 -60 406 184 2,806 3,484 0 -245 -444 278 1,610 1,888 12/13F 3,082 2,133 2,187 903 86 50 -489 -691 -407 783 -749 -770 -900 -60 0 190 -683 0 0 -245 -438 1,628 1,888 3,517 12/14F 3,345 2,549 2,220 903 84 50 -528 -859 -574 973 -895 -738 -900 -60 0 222 -2,654 -2,000 0 -245 -409 -48 3,517 3,469 Forecasts/Valuatio ns (Summarized)P/E (x) P/CF (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS (W) CFPS (W) BPS (W) DPS (W) Payout ratio (%) Dividend Yield (%) Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Operating Profit Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) Inventory Turnover (x) Accounts Payable Turnover (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Liability to Equity Ratio (%) Current Ratio (%) Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F 7. 6 10. 6 8. 5 7. 1 5. 6 6. 8 5. 7 5. 0 1. 3 1. 1 1. 0 0. 9 5. 3 8. 5 6. 2 5. 2 33,671 22,750 26,750 32,218 46,009 35,699 39,772 45,203 203,367 220,183 240,492 266,237 4,000 0 4,000 4,000 9. 6 0. 0 12. 1 10. 0 1. 6 0. 0 1. 8 1. 8 43. 8 1. 9 6. 7. 9 -13. 5 -36. 6 24. 5 10. 4 -18. 0 -45. 2 34. 0 13. 5 -38. 4 -32. 4 17. 6 20. 4 5. 9 6. 0 6. 1 6. 1 9. 3 8. 2 8. 2 8. 3 4. 1 4. 8 5. 7 5. 8 5. 7 3. 7 4. 1 4. 8 16. 7 10. 2 11. 1 12. 2 17. 3 7. 8 10. 0 11. 2 169. 6 156. 8 150. 0 134. 5 90. 5 110. 6 118. 2 124. 0 40. 8 45. 3 34. 1 22. 7 15. 7 6. 0 7. 6 9 . 2 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 9 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS) Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 46,200 Share Price (01/16/13, W) 37,850 Expected Return (%) 22. 1 EPS Growth (13F, %) 0. 6 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 19. 1 P/E (13F, x) 9. Market P/E (13F, x) 9. 0 KOSPI 1,977. 45 Market Cap (Wbn) 8,739 Shares Outstanding (mn) 231 Avg Trading Volume (60D, ‘000) 938 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 34 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0. 0 Free Float (%) 69. 5 52-Week Low (W) 31,650 52-Week High (W) 42,350 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1. 57 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2. 3 Foreign Ownership (%) 32. 0 Major Shareholder(s) Samsung Electronics et al. (24. 42%) Treasury shares (6. 13%) Mirae Asset Global Investment (5. 05%) Price Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -2. 7 4. 3 12. 3 Relative -1. 8 -4. 5 6. 0 Reliable again in 2013 ? ? ? 2013 orders and revenues forecast at US$1 4. 2bn and W14. tr Stable business operations and earnings to remain intact in 2013 Raise TP by 5% to W46,200; Maintain Buy Raise TP by 5% to W46,200; Maintain Buy We maintain our Buy call on Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) and raise our target price 5% to W46,200. In deriving our target price, we applied a 5% premium to the companyEs lowest P/B level since 2005 (1. 3x). We believe that the 5% premium is undemanding, as the company is expected to win solid orders and display stable earnings in 2013. We expect SHI to win massive orders of US$14. 2bn despite the slump in the global shipbuilding market, driven by the robust offshore plant market and the companyEs superior competitiveness.SHIEs shares are trading at a 2013F P/E of 9. 4x and a P/B of 1. 3x. We think that SHI has strong investment merits in light of its competitive edge, stable earnings, robust growth potential, and cash flow improvement. Investment summary 1) Domestic institutions are most optimistic on SHI among the thre e largest domestic shipbuilders. SHI has proven its superior competitiveness in the offshore plant business, including FLNG and drillships. As such, the company has solid earnings relative to its competitors. 2) SHI is expanding into the subsea business, and we believe that the company will be able to bolster its competitiveness in the segment rapidly. ) The commercial vessel unit, which exhibited a tepid performance last year, is likely to recover in 2013 thanks to: 1) rising mega containership orders and 2) steady orders for LNG carriers and LNG FSRU. 4) SHI is expected to display the fastest cash flow improvement in its peer group this year, backed by: 1) a rise in orders for both offshore plants and commercial vessels and 2) an increase in heavy-tail payments. As such, the company will be able to repay its debt and strengthen its financial structure. 5) SHIEs earnings should gradually increase on rising revenue contributions from the offshore plant unit. Share price 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 KOSPI Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F Revenue (Wbn) 13,146 13,392 14,875 14,980 15,751 OP OP Margin NP (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) 1,433 10. 1,000 1,160 8. 7 851 1,226 8. 2 929 1,198 8. 0 934 1,355 8. 6 1,015 EPS EBITDA FCF ROE (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) 4,330 1,504 598 28. 7 3,685 1,455 1,556 19. 4 4,021 1,551 282 18. 4 4,044 1,514 931 15. 8 4,396 1,667 978 14. 9 P/E (x) 9. 5 7. 6 9. 6 9. 4 8. 6 P/B (x) 2. 1 1. 2 1. 5 1. 3 1. 1 EV/EBITDA (x) 8. 2 5. 4 6. 1 5. 5 4. 5 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Daewoo Securities Research 10 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Samsung Heavy Industries (010140 KS/Buy/TP: W46,200) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Wbn) Revenues Cost of Sales Gross Profit SG Expenses Operating Profit (Adj) Operating Profit Non-Operating Profit Net Financial Income N et Gain from Inv in Associates Pretax Profit Income Tax Profit from Continuing Operations Profit from Discontinued Operations Net Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests Total Comprehensive Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests EBITDA FCF (Free Cash Flow) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) 12/11 13,392 11,628 1,763 681 1,083 1,160 -10 -25 -32 1,150 299 851 0 851 851 0 616 616 0 1,455 1,556 10. 9 8. 7 6. 4 12/12F 14,875 12,867 2,008 766 1,242 1,226 -30 -34 0 1,196 267 929 0 929 929 0 920 920 0 1,551 282 10. 4 8. 2 6. 2 12/13F 14,980 13,017 1,962 764 1,198 1,198 4 -44 0 1,202 268 934 0 934 934 0 925 925 0 1,514 931 10. 1 8. 0 6. 2 12/14F 15,751 13,594 2,158 803 1,355 1,355 -19 -51 0 1,336 321 1,015 0 1,015 1,015 0 1,006 1,006 0 1,667 978 10. 6 8. 6 6. 5 Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) Wbn) Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents AR & Other Receivables Inventories Other Current Assets Non-Current Assets Inv estments in Associates Property, Plant and Equipment Intangible Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities AP & Other Payables Short-Term Financial Liabilities Other Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Long-Term Financial Liabilities Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Controlling Interests Capital Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Non-Controlling Interests Stockholders' Equity 12/11 9,617 806 4,132 540 1,905 6,797 0 5,408 86 16,414 10,539 4,425 3,232 2,883 1,231 1,004 88 11,770 4,644 1,155 423 3,610 0 4,644 12/12F 9,112 1,115 3,793 550 1,711 6,316 5 5,434 38 15,428 7,758 3,882 1,570 2,306 2,213 1,881 138 9,971 5,457 1,155 423 4,430 0 5,457 12/13F 9,229 1,264 3,820 554 1,648 6,372 5 5,506 21 15,601 7,301 3,910 1,070 2,322 1,918 1,481 188 9,219 6,382 1,155 423 5,364 0 6,382 12/14F 9,720 1,445 4,017 583 1,733 6,439 5 5,573 13 16,159 7,223 4,111 670 2,442 1,656 1,081 271 8,878 7,280 1,155 423 6,272 0 7,281 Cash Flows (Summarized) Wbn) Cash Flows from Op Activitie s Net Profit Non-Cash Income and Expense Depreciation Amortization Others Chg in Working Capital Chg in AR & Other Receivables Chg in Inventories Chg in AP & Other Payables Income Tax Paid Cash Flows from Inv Activities Chg in PP&E Chg in Intangible Assets Chg in Financial Assets Others Cash Flows from Fin Activities Chg in Financial Liabilities Chg in Equity Dividends Paid Others Increase (Decrease) in Cash Beginning Balance Ending Balance 12/11 1,341 1,150 189 294 78 75 549 1,284 150 164 -548 332 -242 -1 309 265 -1,306 -1,090 1 -108 -109 359 447 806 12/12F 351 1,131 558 297 11 -268 -1,061 34 39 -541 -276 -274 -368 -1 3 92 240 416 1 -108 -68 309 806 1,115 12/13F 1,376 934 580 299 17 -50 130 -27 -4 27 -268 -310 -370 -1 0 61 -917 -900 0 -108 -17 149 1,115 1,264 12/14F 1,408 1,015 651 302 10 -50 62 -197 -29 201 -321 -307 -370 -1 0 64 -921 -800 0 -108 -13 181 1,264 1,445 Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)P/E (x) P/CF (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS (W) CFPS (W) BPS (W) DPS (W) Payout rati o (%) Dividend Yield (%) Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Operating Profit Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) Inventory Turnover (x) Accounts Payable Turnover (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Liability to Equity Ratio (%) Current Ratio (%) Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 12/11 7. 6 5. 3 1. 2 5. 4 3,685 5,296 22,582 500 12. 7 1. 8 1. 9 -3. 3 -19. 0 -14. 9 2. 8 23. 3 3. 2 4. 8 19. 4 15. 5 253. 4 91. 3 25. 8 57. 5 12/12F 9. 6 7. 2 1. 5 6. 1 4,021 5,358 26,307 0 0. 0 0. 0 11. 1 6. 6 5. 7 9. 1 3. 8 27. 3 3. 7 5. 8 18. 4 18. 9 182. 7 117. 5 7. 2 57. 9 12/13F 9. 7. 0 1. 3 5. 5 4,044 5,410 30,381 0 11. 6 0. 0 0. 7 -2. 4 -2. 2 0. 6 4. 0 27. 1 4. 0 6. 0 15. 8 16. 9 144. 5 126. 4 -10. 3 69. 5 12/14F 8. 6 6. 6 1. 1 4. 5 4,396 5,747 34,309 0 0. 0 0. 0 5. 2 10. 1 13. 0 8. 7 4. 1 27. 7 4. 1 6. 4 14. 9 19. 1 121. 9 134. 6 -22. 5 106. 2 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 11 January 17, 2013 Sh ipbuilding Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620 KS) Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 148,000 Share Price (01/16/13, W) 125,000 Expected Return (%) 18. 4 EPS Growth (13F, %) 45. 2 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 19. 1 P/E (13F, x) 13. 1 Market P/E (13F, x) 9. 0 KOSPI 1,977. 5 Market Cap (Wbn) 2,500 Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 Avg Trading Volume (60D, ‘000) 121 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 14 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 1. 6 Free Float (%) 51. 6 52-Week Low (W) 102,500 52-Week High (W) 167,000 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1. 58 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2. 4 Foreign Ownership (%) 18. 1 Major Shareholder(s) Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries et al. (46. 4%) NPS (7. 38%) Price Performance (%) Absolute Relative Shining in the dark ? ? ? 2013 target: US$3. 2bn in orders and W3. 6tr in revenues Stands to benefit most from industry restructuring Maintain Buy and TP of W148,000 Maintain Buy and TP of W148,000We maintain our Buy recommendation on Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (HMD) and our target price of W148,000. We expect HMD to maintain stable growth in orders and earnings, despite the global economic slowdown and eurozone fiscal crisis. Indeed, among small- to mid-sized shipbuilders, HMD is the company most favored by shipowners. Amid an expected further slowdown in the shipbuilding market, the company is anticipated to display distinguished share performance in 2013. Given HMDEs cash holdings of W450bn and the value of its stake in Hyundai Heavy Industries (W1. 4tr; 8. 0% of outstanding shares), we believe that the companiesE shares are currently undervalued (trading at a 2013F P/E of 13. 1x and a P/B of 0. 9x). Investment points ) We believe HMD will continue to display outstanding performance among small- to mid-sized Korean shipbuilders in 2013. Even amid intensifying competition due to limited orders and low ship prices, the company is expected to enjoy stable orders, earnings, and cash flow this year. 2) HMDEs competitiveness comes from its productivity, fi nancing capability, and the quality of its products. It also boasts strong cost competitiveness as the company purchases raw materials at relatively lower prices from the Hyundai Heavy Industries Group. 3) In the small- to mid-sized merchant ship market, the product carrier (P/C) segment, in which HMD has the strongest competitive edge, is expected to be relatively robust in 2013. ) If the shipbuilding market remains in a slump for a protracted period of time, HMD should be able to widen its gap with its peers. The company stands to benefit most from a second industry restructuring that is expected to end sometime in 2014. 1M 2. 5 3. 3 6M 6. 4 -2. 4 12M 11. 6 5. 3 Share price 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 KOSPI Earnings & Valuation Metrics FY 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F Revenue OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (x) 4,138 683 16. 5 493 24,629 741 431 14. 7 9. 1 4,624 378 8. 2 200 9,992 441 -633 5. 5 11. 2 4 ,404 126 2. 9 131 6,556 192 -563 4. 3 19. 4 4,624 191 4. 1 190 9,518 256 397 6. 4 13. 1 4,855 230 4. 235 11,770 293 416 7. 4 10. 6 P/B EV/EBITDA (x) (x) 1. 2 4. 4 0. 8 4. 2 1. 0 13. 8 0. 9 8. 6 0. 8 6. 0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Daewoo Securities Research 12 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620 KS/Buy/TP: W148,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) (Wbn) Revenues Cost of Sales Gross Profit SG Expenses Operating Profit (Adj) Operating Profit Non-Operating Profit Net Financial Income Net Gain from Inv in Associates Pretax Profit Income Tax Profit from ContinuingOperations Profit from Discontinued Operations Net Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests Total Comprehensive Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests EBITDA FCF (Free Cash Flow) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit M argin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) 12/11 4,624 3,975 649 272 378 378 -63 -24 0 315 112 202 0 202 200 3 -821 -823 2 441 -633 9. 5 8. 2 4. 3 12/12F 4,404 4,002 402 276 126 126 41 -8 -2 167 41 126 0 126 131 -5 -274 -265 -9 192 -563 4. 4 2. 9 3. 0 12/13F 4,624 4,143 481 290 191 191 52 -9 -2 243 58 185 0 185 190 -5 185 194 -9 256 397 5. 5 4. 1 4. 1 12/14F 4,855 4,321 534 304 230 230 73 -10 -2 303 73 230 0 230 235 -5 230 239 -9 293 416 6. 0 4. 7 4. 9 Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) Wbn) Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents AR & Other Receivables Inventories Other Current Assets Non-Current Assets Investments in Associates Property, Plant and Equipment Intangible Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities AP & Other Payables Short-Term Financial Liabilities Other Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Long-Term Financial Liabilities Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Controlling Interests Capital Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Non-Controlling Interest s Stockholders' Equity 12/11 4,134 564 975 283 427 3,691 34 889 340 7,825 3,914 1,774 1,779 361 502 56 420 4,416 3,217 100 91 2,081 191 3,409 12/12F 4,994 418 1,814 231 352 3,632 35 928 341 8,626 4,499 1,850 2,253 396 999 191 781 5,498 2,912 100 90 2,172 215 3,127 12/13F 4,919 468 1,568 243 462 3,675 33 964 344 8,593 4,274 1,905 1,953 416 1,046 141 878 5,320 3,067 100 90 2,323 206 3,273 12/14F 4,878 532 1,427 255 486 3,650 31 933 347 8,527 4,071 1,991 1,643 437 993 101 865 5,063 3,267 100 90 2,519 197 3,464 Cash Flows (Summarized) Wbn) Cash Flows from Op Activities Net Profit Non-Cash Income and Expense Depreciation Amortization Others Chg in Working Capital Chg in AR & Other Receivables Chg in Inventories Chg in AP & Other Payables Income Tax Paid Cash Flows from Inv Activities Chg in PP&E Chg in Intangible Assets Chg in Financial Assets Others Cash Flows from Fin Activities Chg in Financial Liabilities Chg in Equity Dividends Paid Others Increase (Decrease) in Cash Beginning Balan ce Ending Balance 12/11 -697 202 311 62 1 -213 -1,075 -190 -54 -593 -135 441 -100 -4 400 145 93 245 0 -93 -59 -168 732 564 12/12F -816 126 78 65 2 -12 -969 -220 52 66 -50 150 -112 -4 79 186 516 601 0 -39 -46 -146 564 418 12/13F 489 185 71 64 1 10 291 247 -12 56 -58 -47 -100 -4 0 57 -392 -350 0 -39 -2 50 418 468 12/14F 432 230 62 62 1 30 212 140 -12 86 -73 23 -30 -4 0 57 -391 -350 0 -39 -2 64 468 532 Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)P/E (x) P/CF (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS (W) CFPS (W) BPS (W) DPS (W) Payout ratio (%) Dividend Yield (%) Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Operating Profit Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) Inventory Turnover (x) Accounts Payable Turnover (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Liability to Equity Ratio (%) Current Ratio (%) Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F 11. 2 19. 4 13. 1 10. 6 8. 5 12. 9 9. 8 8. 4 0. 8 1. 0 0. 9 0. 8 4. 2 13. 8 8. 6 6. 0 9,992 6,556 9,518 11,770 13,153 9,869 12,760 14,910 146,152 130,821 138,428 148,290 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 19. 6 29. 9 20. 6 16. 6 1. 8 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 11. 7 -4. 8 5. 0 5. 0 -40. 5 -56. 5 33. 4 14. 3 -44. 7 -66. 8 52. 2 20. 3 -59. 4 -34. 4 45. 2 23. 7 6. 1 4. 2 3. 9 5. 0 18. 1 17. 1 19. 5 19. 5 2. 5 3. 2 3. 8 3. 8 2. 3 1. 5 2. 2 2. 7 5. 5 4. 3 6. 4 7. 4 53. 8 8. 1 10. 7 15. 6 129. 6 175. 8 162. 5 146. 2 105. 6 111. 0 115. 1 119. 8 -18. 0 -4. 9 -16. 9 -27. 9 689. 5 45. 6 78. 1 109. 7Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 13 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Hanjin Heavy I&C (097230 KS) Hold (Downgrade) Target Price (12M, W) Share Price (01/16/13, W) 10,000 Expected Return (%) 0. 0 EPS Growth (13F, %) RR Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 19. 1 P/E (13F, x) Market P/E (13F, x) 9. 0 KOSPI 1,977. 45 Market Cap (Wbn) 483 Shares Outstanding (mn) 48 Avg Trading Volume (60D, ‘000) 310 Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 4 Dividend Yield (13F, %) 0. 0 Free Float (%) 62. 6 52-Week Low (W) 10,00 0 52-Week High (W) 23,850 Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1. 43 Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 2. 7 Foreign Ownership (%) 9. Major Shareholder(s) Hanjin Heavy I Holdings et al (37. 38%) KB Asset Management (5. 13%) Price Performance (%) 1M Absolute -23. 4 Relative -22. 5 Unlikely to weather market slump ? ? ? Earnings unlikely to recover due to shipbuilding market slump and protracted strike Cash flow to deteriorate due to excessive debt and weak orders Downgrade to Hold Downgrade to Hold We lower our rating on Hanjin Heavy I (HHIC) to Hold from Trading Buy. We believe that the companyEs earnings and cash flow will not improve for the time being, given its tepid order performance amid the sluggish commercial vessel market, and the suspension of its Youngdo shipyard due to a strike.Although the company has recently embarked on the development of an industrial site near the Incheon port, the project is unlikely to boost operating profit markedly due to high capital requir ements and increased interest expenses. As such, the companyEs shares are unlikely to recover in the near term, in our view Although the companyEs shares are trading at a 2013F P/B of just 0. 4x, we believe that their investment merits are low. Indeed, efforts to dispose of property amid a lackluster real estate market should meet with difficulty, and continued net losses and excessive interest expenses should leave cash flow from operations uncertain. Risks ) The commercial vessel unit at the Youngdo shipyard is unlikely to recover. The slump in the global commercial vessel market is leading to a fall in orders, while intensifying competition among shipbuilders are prompting shipowners to demand discounts on ship prices. . 2) There is a growing possibility that the Subic shipyard will take new orders, as it possesses strong price competitiveness. However, as it is difficult to build highend vessels at the Subic shipyard, the companyEs earnings are unlikely to recover in the near fu ture. 3) There are many labor-management issues yet to be resolved, including one related to employees who are currently on leave due to a lack of work. ) Although HHIC is meeting its short-term capital needs through real estate disposal, the company will likely find it difficult to sell large-scale real estate assets due to the real estate market slump. Indeed, the company needs more capital to engage in the development project near the Incheon port. Given that the project is not progressing rapidly, uncertainties over the companyEs cash flow will likely persist in the long term. 5) HHIC holds massive debt (W2. 8tr). Proceeds from the companyEs planned rights offering (estimated to at W180bn) should be only equivalent to its annual interest expenses. 6M -26. 7 -35. 5 12M -47. 9 -54. 3 Share price 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 KOSPI Earnings & Valuation MetricsFY 12/10 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F Revenue OP OP Margin NP (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) 3,168 120 3. 8 -72 2,8 92 108 3. 7 -97 2,547 63 2. 5 -103 2,795 76 2. 7 -10 3,071 83 2. 7 -32 EPS EBITDA FCF ROE (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) -1,496 312 487 -3. 6 -2,006 200 -224 -5. 1 -2,123 148 243 -5. 7 -158 195 182 -0. 6 -466 184 146 -1. 8 P/E (x) P/B (x) 1. 0 0. 5 0. 4 0. 4 0. 4 EV/EBITDA (x) 14. 5 19. 9 24. 0 16. 9 18. 0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Daewoo Securities Research 14 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Hanjin Heavy I (097230 KS/Hold) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Wbn) Revenues Cost of Sales Gross Profit SG Expenses Operating Profit (Adj) Operating Profit Non-Operating Profit Net Financial Income Net Gain from Inv in Associates Pretax Profit Income Tax Profit from Continuing Operations Profit from Discontinued Operations Net Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controlling Interests Total Comprehensive Profit Controlling Interests Non-Controllin g Interests EBITDA FCF (Free Cash Flow) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) 12/11 2,892 2,665 227 140 87 108 -190 171 -2 -82 15 -97 0 -97 -97 0 -90 -90 0 200 -224 6. 9 3. 7 -3. 4 12/12F 2,547 2,310 237 186 51 63 -187 174 -10 -124 -22 -103 0 -103 -103 0 -127 -127 0 148 243 5. 8 2. 5 -4. 0 12/13F 2,795 2,516 280 204 76 76 -89 159 -5 -13 -3 -11 0 -11 -10 0 -35 -34 0 195 182 7. 0 2. 7 -0. 4 12/14F 3,071 2,764 307 224 83 83 -125 150 0 -42 -9 -33 0 -33 -32 0 -57 -56 0 184 146 6. 0 2. 7 -1. 1 Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) Wbn) Current Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents AR & Other Receivables Inventories Other Current Assets Non-Current Assets Investments in Associates Property, Plant and Equipment Intangible Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities AP & Other Payables Short-Term Financial Liabilities Other Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Long-Term Financial Liabilities Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Controlling Inter ests Capital Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Non-Controlling Interests Stockholders' Equity 12/11 2,392 854 917 361 237 4,645 66 3,144 89 7,037 2,483 811 1,603 69 2,687 2,317 329 5,170 1,864 241 644 814 2 1,867 12/12F 2,058 686 868 280 209 4,535 81 2,980 89 6,592 2,286 802 1,421 63 2,566 2,177 336 4,852 1,738 241 644 712 2 1,740 12/13F 2,077 617 925 294 228 4,487 76 2,871 89 6,564 2,384 895 1,421 69 2,369 1,977 338 4,753 1,809 346 644 701 2 1,810 12/14F 2,025 422 1,016 322 250 4,412 76 2,780 89 6,437 2,479 983 1,421 76 2,204 1,777 373 4,683 1,752 346 644 669 2 1,754 Cash Flows (Summarized) Wbn) Cash Flows from Op Activities Net Profit Non-Cash Income and Expense Depreciation Amortization Others Chg in Working Capital Chg in AR & Other Receivables Chg in Inventories Chg in AP & Other Payables Income Tax Paid Cash Flows from Inv Activities Chg in PP&E Chg in Intangible Assets Chg in Financial Assets Others Cash Flows from Fin Activities Chg in Financial Liabilities Chg in Equi ty Dividends Paid Others Increase (Decrease) in Cash Beginning Balance Ending Balance 12/11 -228 -97 246 113 0 44 -379 -192 -42 -150 2 68 -15 0 -43 126 -106 91 1 0 -198 -262 1,116 854 12/12F 316 -103 265 97 0 16 131 23 77 33 22 9 -21 0 -14 44 -488 -297 0 0 -192 -168 854 686 12/13F 194 -11 206 120 0 25 -4 -57 -13 92 3 11 -10 0 0 21 -275 -200 105 0 -180 -70 686 617 12/14F 165 -33 216 101 0 25 -28 -91 -29 88 9 10 -10 0 0 20 -370 -200 0 0 -170 -194 617 422 Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized)P/E (x) P/CF (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS (W) CFPS (W) BPS (W) DPS (W) Payout ratio (%) Dividend Yield (%) Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Growth (%) Operating Profit Growth (%) EPS Growth (%) Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) Inventory Turnover (x) Accounts Payable Turnover (x) ROA (%) ROE (%) ROIC (%) Liability to Equity Ratio (%) Current Ratio (%) Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 12/11 57. 4 0. 5 19. 9 -2,006 323 36,806 0 0. 0 0. 0 -8. 7 -35. 9 -9. 8 RR 3. 3 8. 9 3. 2 -1. 3 -5. 1 2 . 4 276. 9 96. 3 163. 0 0. 5 12/12F -112. 3 0. 4 24. 0 -2,123 -111 34,182 0 0. 0 0. 0 -11. 9 -25. 9 -41. 8 RR 3. 3 8. 0 3. 9 -1. 5 -5. 7 1. 4 278. 9 90. 0 166. 5 0. 3 12/13F 5. 9 0. 4 16. 9 -158 1,691 24,843 0 0. 0 0. 0 9. 8 31. 8 20. 1 RR 3. 6 9. 8 4. 1 -0. 2 -0. 6 2. 1 262. 6 87. 1 152. 8 0. 4 12/14F 10. 1 0. 4 18. 0 -466 989 24,030 0 0. 0 0. 0 9. 9 -5. 8 9. 9 RR 3. 6 10. 0 4. 0 -0. 5 -1. 8 2. 4 267. 0 81. 7 157. 4 0. 5 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 15January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Important Disclosures & Disclaimers Disclosures As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for equity-linked warrants backed by shares of Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies. As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. has been acting as a financi al advisor to Hyundai Mipo Dockyard for its treasury stock trust, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the companies covered in this report.As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries as an underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies. Stock Ratings Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Relative performance of 20% or greater Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Relative performance of -10% and 10% Relative performance of -10% Industry Ratings Overweight Neutral Underweight Fundamentals are favorable or improving Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (—-), Target price (—-), Not covered ( ¦), Buy (^), Trading Buy ( ¦), Hold (? ), Sell (? )) * Our inves tment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Daewoo Securities, we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analystEs estimate of future earnings. The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions. W) 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 Hyundai Heavy Industries (W) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 Samsung Heavy Industries (W) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (W) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 Hanjin Heavy I&C Analyst Certifica tion The research analysts who prepared this report (the „Analysts†°) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof.Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the AnalystEs area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report.No part of t he compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Daewoo Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. except as otherwise stated herein. Disclaimers This report is published by Daewoo Securities Co. , Ltd. („Daewoo†°), a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and pinions contained herein have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but such information has not been independently ve rified and Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. If this report is an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments.The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principle s and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws and regulations or subject Daewoo and its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction should receive or make any use hereof. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice and no part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Daewoo. Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents.Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide inves tment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Daewoo Securities Research 16 January 17, 2013 Shipbuilding Distribution United Kingdom: This report is being distributed by Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. n the United Kingdom only to (i) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the „Order†°), and (ii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(A) to (E) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as „Relevant Persons†°). This report is directed only at Relevant Persons. Any person who is not a Relevant Person should not act or rely on this report or any of its contents. United States: This report is distributed in the U. S. by Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. , a member of FINRA/SIPC, and is only intended for major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(b)(4) under the U. S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All U. S. ersons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and warrant that they are a major institutional investor and have not received this report under any express or implied understanding that they will direct commission income to Daewoo or its affiliates. Any U. S. recipient of this document wishing to effect a transaction in any securities discussed herein should contact and place orders with Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. , which accepts responsibility for the contents of this report in the U. S. The securities described in this report may not have been regi stered under the U. S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, in such case, may not be offered or sold in the U. S. or to U. S. ersons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements. Hong Kong: This document has been approved for distribution in Hong Kong by Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. , which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. The contents of this report have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. This report is for distribution only to professional investors within the meaning of Part I of Schedule 1 to the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571, Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder and may not be redistributed in whole or in part in Hong Kong to any person.All Other Jurisdictions: Customers in all other countries who wish to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this report should contact Daewoo or its affiliates only if distribution to or use by such customer of this report would not violate applicable laws and regulations and not subject Daewoo and its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. KDB Daewoo Securities International Network Daewoo Securities Co. Ltd. (Seoul) Head Office 34-3 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu Seoul 150-716 Korea Tel: 82-2-768-3026 Daewoo Securities (Europe) Ltd. Tower 42, Level 41 25 Old Broad Street London EC2N 1HQ United Kingdom Tel: 44-20-7982-8016 Shanghai Representative Office Unit 13, 28th Floor, Hang Seng Bank Tower 1000 Lujiazui Ring Road Pudong New Area, Shanghai 200120 China Tel: 86-21-5013-6392 Daewoo Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd.Two International Finance Centre Suites 2005-2012 8 Finance Street, Central Hong Kong Tel: 85-2-2514-1304 Tokyo Representative Office 7th Floor, Yusen Building 2-3-2 Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-0005 Japan Tel: 81-3- 3211-5511 Ho Chi Minh Representative Office Centec Tower 72-74 Nguyen Thi Minh Khai Street Ward 6, Di strict 3, Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam Tel: 84-8-3910-6000 Daewoo Securities (America) Inc. 600 Lexington Avenue Suite 301 New York, NY 10022 United States Tel: 1-212-407-1022 Beijing Representative Office Suite 2602, Twin Towers (East) B-12 Jianguomenwai Avenue Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022 China Tel: 86-10-6567-9699 KDB Daewoo Securities Research 17

Assign3 Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Assign3 - Assignment Example The proofs were presented through the view of the South Pole Telescope where by the brightest cluster galaxies have been found. They are undergoing a violent internal motion caused by a smashup from other galaxies. Abell 3627 generates an x ray which is blue along with hydrogen light. On the other side, Eso 137-001 galaxy has been seen for 260000 light years. It has a tail which the scientists have failed to understand to date. Clusters of galaxies are a collection of galaxies which are bonded by the gravity that is bounded by hot gases. The tails which were formed from the hot gas formed by the spiral arms of the galaxies. This causes an effect to the galaxy hence evolution changes the formation of the stars. 4. In relevance to the top down structure formation, the scenario first forms the large pancakes then followed by the fragment that forms the lumps which are sized. The scenario is important because of the information concerning the existence of the large sheets with low density. In respect to bottom up structure’s scenario, there occurs a formation of the galaxies which are small and dwarfs first, followed by the formation of the clusters. 5. The world was molten many years ago. It took some years for the earth to cool and pass through the process of conduction and radiation. In respect to laws of thermodynamics, the earth has around 24 to 40 million years. The amount of the salt in the oceans also shows that it must have taken them time for salt evaporation process to occur. Nowadays, oceans have only a small amount of salt. The thickness of existing sedimentary rocks is over three million years old. Marine mollusks have also a number of series of million years on the universe thus the world is old enough to have been completed many years. The decay of the radioactivity processes also passes a number of age measures of the rocks and

Public Policy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 6250 words

Public Policy - Essay Example Using a given set of models for test against determination of the level of interest amongst the masses and enabling the identification of problems is made possible through the different models that are used in the entire course of agenda setting. Key words: Agenda setting, evaluation, agenda building, models, rule making, bureaucracy. Agenda setting defines the content and subject of material that would be published and promoted in the media. This further includes prioritization and characterization of information which may be displayed and published in a given order. Keeping the public’s view in sight and publishing the material according to the requirements of modern day and problems faced is determined through the agenda setting. Agenda setting also entails the budget allocation, the activities determination, the standard operating procedures that would be adopted along with the clear roles and responsibilities assignment on behalf of the people associated with the media an d the government agencies who administer over the policies. Bringing a uniform working pattern between the agenda setters and other stakeholders makes up for the agenda setting principles. Regardless of the nature of organization or entity, agenda setting is declaration of the purpose of operations, the aims and achievements underpinned against the work undertaken, and providing a level of familiarity to the clients in a direct or indirect manner. Agenda setting may also pertain to a particular organization, or political party’s manifesto determination and sharing with the masses and direct client of the respective entity. Formulating the steps for actions that would be taken in the entire course of project, activity or any other endeavor undertaken privately, collective or on government scale makes up for agenda setting. Political debates, political parties, political movements, other social movements and government actions and projects all are handled through the agenda set up (Peters, 179). A problem becomes the priority and part of agenda once it gains the attention of the media, and also causes uproar in the society. Based on this the governmental pillars and institutions are brought into action for the purpose of eradication of the problem faced by the masses. Or any problem that the government and other decision making units feel can hamper their performance or bring about the economy or people’s discontent with regard to the government’s office bearers and their performance makes up for the direct agenda and resolution seeking problem. Based on the experts opinion and reviewing of the material in newspapers and other media sources, the think tank teams determine the level of severity and action that needs to be undertaken for the purpose of problem solving. With regard to the public problems, agenda are set on basic of multiple steps. These steps include the strategies as well the use of concrete force, tool and application for the purpose of resolving the problems. A team and resources are allocated in first place to determine the overall nature f the problem. This is followed by the assessment and evaluation phase. Which may include the data collection, or strategy determination for the at hand problem. The assessment phase is guided along by

Industrial Revolution and its Effects on Science Literature review

Industrial Revolution and its Effects on Science - Literature review Example Scientific research leads to the advent of numerous devices like the telephone, phonograph, elevator, ice machine, gasoline-powered cars, and light bulbs, to name a few. In the field of entertainment, new technologies such as the radio and moving pictures became popular. The huge improvements in the process of obtaining and working on raw materials affected primarily metallurgy and chemistry. Applied first in coal mining and textiles, the new techniques, new machines, and new methods rapidly spread into other industrial areas. The application of steam to transportation led to the railroad system, which in turn generated dozens of other technical changes in iron and steel, bridge building, communication and organization ("The Industrial Revolution"). An increase in scientific publications was facilitated by the network of informal societies like the Lunar Society of Birmingham, in which members met to discuss science and its application to manufacturing. Some of these societies published volumes of proceedings and transactions, new inventions, as well as papers about them. Scientific research post-Industrial revolution has also resulted in advancements in chemical and biological warfare as well as in nuclear weaponry. The term Romantic covers most of the music, art, and literature of Western civilization from the nineteenth century.

1. What advantages or disadvantages will bring globalization to any Essay

1. What advantages or disadvantages will bring globalization to any small business To any large business To you as a citizen - Essay Example Globalisation in the 21st century is believed to have the ability to transform the political, economic and social environment of all member countries in the coming years. Thus, the paper tries to bring out the activities, both advantageous and disadvantageous, that result in general globalisation i.e. globalisation to both small and large businesses as well as citizens. This is the act of bringing together different people with different political, social and economic backgrounds and forming of one global community (Ghoshal and Bartlett, 2000). Behind the success of the process lies the economics of international trade, free market frameworks and investment. As earlier mentioned, globalisation encompasses integrating people from different settings, thus it bridges the gap between developing and developed nations as well as creates new cultural exchanges, business models, considerations and experiences within the participating nations (Ghoshal and Bartlett, 2000). The globalisation process began during World War II when Britain and USA leaders helped to establish the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) so as to encourage a capitalist world that is liberal and eliminate the Socialism and Marxism world (Nayyar 2000). Nayyar further affirms that the borrower of the loan from these organisations automatically qualified to follow the preset conditions i.e. reduce import barriers, eliminate financial backing for local-based industries, devalue their currency, put emphasis on export production as opposed to production for local consumption and reduce wages and expenditure on social wellbeing. These conditions resulted in a number of open economies developing a mechanism for integrating with other economies which led to the formation of the World Trade Organisation. Small businesses, small and medium enterprises or simply SME’s as referred to in the European Union (EU) and by other

Thief's Journal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Thief's Journal - Essay Example Doing so, Genet has indeed succeeded in presenting to the target audience a deprived, degrading, shameless, and unethical antithesis to a world harping on moral values and restraint. Genet celebrates the privilege of a convict to inhabit a forbidden universe which only he or others like him are allowed to inhabit, where one can conveniently deny and ignore the constraints of conventional morality, by paying the price for it. Yet the seemingly ridiculous thing is that this forbidden world of the con-artists, thieves and deviants does have its own array of heroes, role models and code of ethics. This in a way makes the scope for a parallel world, which though being a filthy shadow of the real world dominated by bourgeois values, has its own ideals to be diligently pursued, records to be matched or shattered and ethics to be adhered to. However, even a careful perusal of The Thief’s Journal nudges a discriminating reader to question as to the need for this parallel or perhaps an alternate world. Perhaps this parallel world is a well planned construct of an essentially bourgeois society to create a scope for the existence of life styles and values that are either an aberration to its norms and beliefs about the concepts of sexuality, property, conduct and order. Perhaps the society deliberately wants an individual affiliated to even one of these marked or labeled aberrations, say homosexuality, lack of respect for the institution of personal property, a meditated urge to contradict or oppose church dogmas or a talent for making a living through deception to wholeheartedly subscribe to the remaining list because this bourgeois society with its bourgeois values simply could not carve out enough temporal or mental space to accommodate such a talent pool with its individual nuances and specificities. The irony is that irrespective of the best intentions of the bourgeois society, the so called deviants are more than willing to inhabit this parallel world, not onl y because it offers them a space for existence within the larger scope of the overall society, with a freedom to sanctify it with elaborate rituals and ideals, but also a liberty to assert their existence, beliefs and morals, that gets accentuated and highlighted like a sturdy and rusty nail on a whitewashed wall (Hammer 165). So, in a way, irrespective of the methodical and systematic attempts of the bourgeois society to sideline these so called deviants, it ends up doing the opposite that is to recognize and validate their existence through this moral segregation and physical incarceration. The very urge of the dominant social order to treat these deviants as different in a way recognizes, validates and perhaps sadistically celebrates their different identity. In that context, Genet does mention that submission of the deviants do plays a special role in this social recognition (Genet 150). The deviants well know that to resist will not only give an excuse to the society to be open and obvious with its ruthless and callous side, but by doing so they will also end up doing what the society wants them to do. In contrast the deviants opt for the smarter option to be submissive to the social norms, thereby putting the onus on the society to keep up with its obvious sophisticated, liberal

OUTSOURCING ARTICLE Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

OUTSOURCING ARTICLE - Coursework Example Further, imports from the entity were suspended (Larson). This will result into increased pressure on parties in the restaurant industry to take charge of the supply chains. A national survey revealed that 19% of the soil in the country is polluted as well as 44% of the rice that was tested was found to be impure (Larson). This article is important to outsourcing in restaurants in Hong Kong. Restaurants will be forced to thoroughly scrutinize companies that provide their supplies. This mainly applies to rice, meat and other products that grow on the soil. This is following the revelation that 19 percent of the land was polluted. Shanghai Husi Food was owned and operated by the OSI Group that is an Illinois based entity (Larson). It is clear those well-established diners in Hong Kong including Pizza Hut and KFC (Larson). These and other companies that outsourced from the Shanghai Husi Food were forced to stop doing business with entity following the release of the report and the suspension of its operations. The article is relevant to long-term contracts that restaurants and other parties had established with the entity. Being a well known supplier of meat and other products that are used in the food industry Shanghai Husi Food had formed business partnerships that resulted to the formulation of long-term contracts. Following the publication of the report in the last week most of these long term contracts would have to be cancelled. This is owing to the fact that no company would risk continuing to engage with a supplier that was clearly supplying contaminated products. Shanghai Husi Food would be forced to compensate the companies it had entered into long-term contracts with for breaching the terms of the contract. Short-term contracts would have to be terminated as well. This is because the food industry is highly sensitive and any slight

Oil industry in Russia in 2050 Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Oil industry in Russia in 2050 - Assignment Example Of vital significance are the factors, which influence international demand and supply of energy. Owing to the fact that approximately 1.4 billion people in different parts of the world do not have electricity, it is very vital that access to modern forms of energy be enhanced to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals of poverty and hunger reduction, as well as the promotion and expansion of health and education. By the year 2050, the Russia will be virtually energy sufficient. The major reason for this is the increased domestic production of oil and shale gas in Russia. The fact that the Russia is among the major players in the international field alongside United States of America and other countries, requires that a national energy outlook report be carried out on the nation. Energy is very significant in different regions of the world since it supports and enhances social development as well as the growth of financial systems in different nations. As a consequence of the universal importance of energy, it is of utmost magnitude that different actors affected by the energy industry, for instance, the consumers of energy, leaders in government, actors in the energy sector, commercial institutes and the civil society, gain a comprehension of the basic actualities which typify the energy sector. This paper aims at describing a national energy outlook report for the Russia in the year 2050. This report will present the long-term projections of the supply and demand of energy in the Russia from the present times to the year 2050. The descriptions and projections made in this paper will focus greatly on the contributions made by the petroleum and gas sectors. The energy resources in the United States, as well as the policies, regulations and ethics, which infl uence the Russian energy sector, will also be examined. An in depth analysis

Creative Brief Essay Example for Free

Creative Brief Essay Is to increase the consumption of milk among the teenage group so that they would drink less sugary and carbonated drinks that would harm their health . The Product Milk is by far the healthiest beverage after water . Milk helps to strengthen the bones and the teeth . Milk drinking drops off sharply in the teenage years because it is considered to be uncool and most of teenagers are worried about the calories and fat . Part of it has to do with the lack of flavours and the packaging being dull . This is what we found out about the product we decided to help , which is HL Milk by Marigold . Target Audience Our target audience would be males and females aged from 16 to 25 years old .Milk is a beverage that every parent would tell their kids to drink as children , though most of them still drink milk for breakfast but they still choose to drink other drinks like coke , pepsi or ribena .Milk has become less relevant to their lifestyles . They think milk doesn’t go well with foods like Mcd , Pizza and KFC . Why they choose soft drinks is because the soft drinks are exciting , versatile and its an acceptable alternative to milk . Promise and support Promise Todays milk can help the teenagers become strong and dynamic . Looking at the hectic schedule teenagers have these days ,it is recommended to drink milk to help them feel fresh and energized the whole day . Support. Milk has the nutrition the body needs to look and feel dynamic. Today most teenage athletes and famous teen celebrities drink milk . Ice –cold milk taste great especially with HL Milk`s 3 new taste which are peach , coffee and mango . It has a more refreshing taste to it . Not to heavy nor to creamy . Its light and smooth . Brand personality. The personality now of HL Milk is dull and there isn’t any attractive colours that would attract a consumer to get it . Some consumers especially teenagers look at the packaging before purchasing products . If its attractive and youthful they would purchase it .The old packaging is very practical and conservative as it only has 2 colours with no pictures on the box . The needed personality for teenagers to buy the HL Milk would be exhuberant , contemparory and youthful . The packaging would suit the lifestyle of the teenagers . The would be shy to drink milk in public .

Comparing and Contrasting Biblical and Professional Views of Addiction Essay Example for Free

Comparing and Contrasting Biblical and Professional Views of Addiction Essay Running head: COMPARING AND CONTRASTING VIEWS OF ADDICTION Comparing and Contrasting Biblical and Professional Views of Addiction Mike Hill Liberty University Abstract This paper compares and contrasts the biblical view of addiction counseling with the historical and current professional standpoint. This is achieved by carefully inspecting from a biblical perspective the meanings and usages of terms such as counsel, advice, wine, strong drink, abstinence, and others. This paper will also present the definition, etiology, assessment, diagnosis, consequences, and intervention strategies related to addiction. Finally, the last section will provide personal insights and applications. Comparing and Contrasting Biblical and Professional Views of Addiction Introduction As the fabled emperor proudly paraded around in his new clothes, the whole hamlet knew there was a problem except the naked, self-deceived ruler. Similarly, the common threads that bind most substance abusers are denial and destructive behavior. Kanel (2007) summarized substance dependence as â€Å"a maladaptive pattern of substance abuse leading to clinically significant impairment or distress† (p. 169). Clients who present with alcohol dependence or abuse have a vice-grip hold on defenses which include denial, displacement, fantasy, projection, rationalization, minimizing, and repression (Kanel, 2007, pp. 174-175). For example, Kanel (2007) asserts, â€Å"Denial is strong in these types of clients because most of them who come in for counseling are still capable of functioning on the job; therefore, they do not see themselves as addicts† (p. 175). However, denial does not cover the problem nor the devastating consequences. Nationally, researchers have estimated a staggering 40% of all traffic crash fatalities are alcohol related (NIAA, 2010). Research has also demonstrated  that most high school students â€Å"started their drug involvement with beer or wine. The second stage involved hard liquor, cigarettes, or both.† In the third stage, teens moved on to illicit drug use (Ksir, Hart, Oakley, 2009, p. 17). In addition, in 2008, 51.6% of Americans age 12 and older had used alcohol at least once in the 30 days prior to being surveyed (NIDA, 2010). The estimated cost of alcohol abuse and alcoholism to the United States is in the billions—a sobering thought, especially in our current economic distress (NIAA, 2010). The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the biblical view of addiction counseling with the historical and current professional standpoint. This goal will be achieved by carefully inspecting from a biblical perspective the meanings and usages of terms such as counsel, advice, wisdom, plan, purpose, instruction, and help as well as words related to addiction which include wine, strong drink, desire, self-control, and abstinence. Secondly, this paper will compare and contrast the professional view of counseling versus biblical counseling as related to addiction. This section will present the definition, etiology, assessment, diagnosis, consequences, and intervention strategies related to addiction. Finally, the last section will provide personal insights and applications. Biblical Words Related to Counseling To grasp the message of a song, it is necessary to dissect the lyrics. Likewise, to comprehend the philosophy and purpose of counseling, the meaning of the words related to it must be defined and understood. According to a biblical worldview, the first word to be defined is â€Å"counsel.† Counsel The word â€Å"counsel† in the Bible is derived from different Hebrew, Aramaic, and Greek words. The word definitions were derived from the Blue Letter Bible (2010) website which provides the meanings of the words from Strong’s Exhaustive Concordance of the Bible. A sample of Old Testament (OT) usages from the New King James Version (NKJV) and the King James Version (KJV) are as follows: a. Ya‘ats (verb)—means â€Å"to advise, to consult, devise, or plan.† David joyfully proclaimed, â€Å"I will bless the LORD who has given me counsel (ya‘ats)† (Psalm 16:7 NKJV). David identified the Lord as being the source of good counsel. b. Dabar (noun)—refers to â€Å"a saying or speech.† The counsel (dabar) of Balaam led the Israelites away from the Lord which resulted in severe judgment (Numbers 31:16). From this Hebrew usage, counseling can be understood as much more than simply listening to clients. Listening plays a large part in establishing a working alliance, but counseling also involves the counselor supplying verbal input, albeit, better counsel than Balaam’s. c. ‘Etsah (noun)—means â€Å"advice or purpose.† This word is akin to the Greek word boule. Clinton and Ohlschlager (2002) discovered that, â€Å"The word occurs more than a hundred times in the Septuagint, where it is used seventy-four times to translate the Hebrew word etzah† (p. 59). Usage of this word in both Psalm 33:10-11 and Psalm 1 demonstrate that there are basically two types of counsel: either ungodly or godly. â€Å"The LORD bringeth the counsel (‘etsah) of the heathen to nought: He maketh the devices of the people of none effect. The counsel (‘etsah) of the LORD standeth for ever, the thoughts of His heart to all generations† (Psalm 33:10-11 KJV). This word is also used in 2Samuel 15:31, 34, 1Kings 12:8, Psalm 1:1, 33:10-11, Proverbs 20:5, and Isaiah 11:2. d. Tachbulah (noun)—conveys the idea of â€Å"direction, guidance, or good advice.† (See Proverbs 11:14.) e. Melak (Aramaic-noun)—means â€Å"advice.† (See Daniel 4:27.) The New Testament (NT) was originally written in Greek. The following Greek words are translated into the English word â€Å"counsel†: a. Sumbouleuo (verb)—means â€Å"to counsel, to advise, or exhort.† The essence of the counsel (sumbouleuo) of Jesus to nominal believers in Laodicea was to turn from their materialistic self-complacency and open their hearts to true intimacy with Him (Rev. 3:18, 20). This word also means â€Å"to consult together or to plot† as used in Matthew 26:4 and Matthew 28:12. b. Boule (noun)—means â€Å"counsel, purpose, design, determination, or decree.† This word is used in Luke 7:30, Acts 2:23, Ephesians 1:11, and Hebrews 6:17. Noted  Greek scholar Ken Wuest (1947) adds that boule means, â€Å"To desire, which desire comes from one’s reason†¦counsel to the effect that the soul might find a sure refuge in the Lord Jesus† (p. 123). c. Bouleuo (verb)—means â€Å"to give counsel, to purpose, or to determine.† The idea of counsel being â€Å"advice or the act of giving advice† is a common thread tying most of these words together. Tachbulah, boule and bouleuo include â€Å"purpose† and â€Å"direction† to further expound the meaning. While good counsel includes advice-giving, Clinton and Ohlschlager (2002) encourage an approach that helps the client discover truth rather than simply telling them what the truth is. Drawing from Proverbs 20:5, they assert, â€Å"Truth drawn out of the client’s own life tends to be more deeply understood and more actively embraced, and it motivates and sustains the change process† (p. 204). Advice The next word â€Å"advice† is translated from two different Hebrew words and a Greek word. a. Dabar (noun) and ‘etsah (noun)—are Hebrew words that are also translated as â€Å"counsel† in the OT as described above. b. Gnome (noun)—this Greek word means â€Å"view, intention, or reason.† c. Webster’s dictionary (1983) defines advice as â€Å"counsel; an opinion offered as worthy to be followed in a particular situation† (p. 29). Plan â€Å"Plan† and â€Å"purpose† are both translated from the Hebrew word machashabah (noun) which is found in Proverbs 16:3, Proverbs 20:18 and Jeremiah 29:11. In the New Testament, the Greek word prothesis (noun) means â€Å"purpose, a predetermination, or a setting forth† and is used in Romans 8:28; and 9:11. Instruction Another word related to counseling is â€Å"instruction.† Examples from the Old Testament and New Testament are as follows: a. Muwcar (noun)—Hebrew meaning â€Å"discipline or correction† as in Proverbs 19:20. b. Paideia (noun)—this Greek word refers to the â€Å"training up† of children into adulthood. As it relates to believers, it is â€Å"instruction with the aim at increasing virtue.† A key passage where this word is used is 2Timothy 3:16. Wisdom Wise counsel is non-negotiable for success in the therapeutic relationship. â€Å"Wisdom† is defined in the Hebrew and Greek below: a. Chokmah (noun)—this Hebrew word also means â€Å"shrewdness or prudence.† There is a prophetic reference to the Messiah in Isaiah 11:2 indicating that He would have the â€Å"Spirit of wisdom (chokmah)† upon Him. b. Sophia (noun)—Mounce (1993) defines this word as â€Å"wisdom, in general, knowledge, learning, science or enlightenment† (p. 419). This word can be found in James 3:16-17 where wisdom from God is contrasted with earthly, demonic wisdom. Help Finally, forming a helping relationship is necessary for client change (Horvath Luborsky, 1993, p. 561). The Hebrew words ‘ezrah and azar as well as the Greek words boetheia, sullambano, and epikouria, all basically mean â€Å"to help.† Psalm 60:11 concludes that help (‘ezrah) from man is useless. True help is only from the Lord. Christian counselors can boldly visit God’s throne of grace to receive grace for the right help (boetheia) to extend to clients (Hebrews 4:16). As connecting dot-to-dots will form an image, combining these words together will provide a picture of counseling from a biblical worldview. In essence, there are two types of counsel: either godly or ungodly. Godly, wise counsel originates from God and accomplishes His purposes. Ungodly, unwise counsel is â€Å"earthly, sensual, demonic† and fulfills the plans of this present age (James 3:15-17). The goal of Christian counseling includes  God’s eternal plan for souls to enter a relationship with Jesus and grow in Him. The priority of the counsel of Jesus is intimacy with Him above attaining material wealth and earthly satisfaction (Revelation 3:18, 20). In contrast, secular counseling has the temporal goal of human satisfaction and self-fulfillment (Clinton Ohlschlager, 2002, p. 77). Bufford (1997) considers the difference in goals as the most important factor distinguishing Christian from secular counseling (p. 120). For example, suppose a client’s unwanted pregnancy was causing distress in her life. A secular counselor would provide abortion as an option (Feldman, 2008, p. 57). A competent Christian counselor would assist the client to view issues through the lens of Scripture and would not suggest abortion as an option (AACC code of ethics, 2004, p. 7). Rather, the Christian counselor would supply other options such as adoption, para-church ministries, and other ideas to support the decision of carrying the baby to term. Fulfillment, satisfaction, and peace are the by-products of godly counsel. When Moses appropriated the counsel of his father-in-law Jethro, he was able to manage his overwhelming responsibilities more efficiently and to have peace of mind (Exodus 18:19). Another illustration of counseling in Scripture is in 2Samuel 15. Ahithophel was once King David’s counselor. Ahithophel’s job was to provide advice to the king in order for him to make wise decisions in war plans and to understand the mind of the Lord in other practical matters. Proverbs 20:18 (NKJV) instructs, â€Å"Plans (machashabah) are established by counsel (‘etsah); by wise counsel (tachbulah) wage war.† However, Ahithophel betrayed David by becoming Absalom’s counselor. Therefore, David prayed that Ahithophel’s counsel would be turned to foolishness. God honored David’s request, and the Lord’s counsel and purpose was accomplished (2Samuel 15-17). Ultimately, God’s counsel will stand forever, whereas the opinions and plans of man will pass away (Psalm 33:10-11). Biblical Words Related to Addiction Wine a. Yayin (noun)—means â€Å"wine.† Sometime after he departed from the ark, Noah became intoxicated by wine. Noah’s inebriated condition elicited a lack of inhibitory control because he â€Å"was uncovered within his tent†Ã‚  (Genesis 9:21 KJV). As a result, his son Ham apparently engaged in some sort of inappropriate behavior (Genesis 9:22-25). Lot’s daughters introduced wine into their plan to perform inappropriate behavior with their father (Genesis 19:32-35). These two examples present the negative side of wine abuse which coincides with sobering warnings in other passages (cf. Proverbs 20:1; 23:31-35). Scripture also displays wine as an illustration of joy. The Lord provides â€Å"wine that makes glad the heart of man† (Psalm 104:15a NKJV). b. Oinos (noun)—In the NT, this Greek word means â€Å"wine.† Vine and Bruce (1981)  expound, â€Å"The drinking of wine could be a stumbling-block and the Apostle enjoins  abstinence in this respect, as in others, so as to avoid giving an occasion of stumbling to a brother (Romans 14:21)† (p. 219). In contrast, Paul encourages Timothy to â€Å"no longer drink only water, but use a little wine for your stomachs sake and your frequent infirmities† (1Timothy 5:23 NKJV). Strong drink a. Shekar (noun)—is an OT Hebrew word meaning, â€Å"strong drink or intoxicating liquor.† While performing priestly duties in the tabernacle, Aaron and his sons were forbidden to drink wine or strong drink under penalty of death (Leviticus 10:19). b. Sikera (noun)—In the NT, this word means, â€Å"intoxicating beverage which is different  from wine.† It was made of a mixture of sweet ingredients. John the Baptist did not drink wine or strong drink, but he was filled with the Holy Spirit from his mother’s womb (Luke 1:15). Desire a. Teshuwqah—This OT word means â€Å"desire, longing, or craving.† God confronted Cain by personifying sin as a crouching lion ready to destroy  him, who’s â€Å"desire [is] for you, but you should rule over it† (Genesis 4:7b NKJV). b. Chamad—In Exodus, this Hebrew word meaning â€Å"desire, to take pleasure in, or to delight in† is translated as â€Å"covet,† being utilized in a negative sense. For example, the tenth commandment indicates that individuals are not to â€Å"covet† anything that belongs to a neighbor (Exodus 20:17). c. Zeloo—This NT Greek word means â€Å"to be heated for or to be zealously sought after.† This word is either used in a good or evil way, depending upon the context. For example, James rebukes believers for desiring things with a sinful motive (James 4:2). In contrast, Paul exhorts believers to desire spiritual gifts (1Corinthians 14:1). d. Epithumeo—This Greek word meaning â€Å"to long for, to lust after, a craving, to have a desire for, or to seek things forbidden† is presented in either a negative or positive light, depending upon the context. For example, Jesus revealed to His disciples that â€Å"many prophets and righteous men desired to see what you see† concerning the kingdom of God. However, the usage of this word may also denote a sinful desire as in Romans when Paul disclosed that he became aware of his sinful nature when the commandment declared, â€Å"You shall not covet (epithumeo)† (Romans 7:7). The Bible appears to indicate that lust (epithumeo) and love are mutually exclusive (1John 2:15-17). Self-control a. ‘Aphaq—This OT Hebrew word means â€Å"to hold back, refrain, or to restrain oneself.† Scripture instructs that a wise person will refrain from taking the popular path of the crowd and making sinful choices (Proverbs 1:8). b. Egkrates—means â€Å"to exercise self-government, to conduct one’s self temperately, or to exhibit self-control.† Paul draws upon the competitive edge required to win in athletic events to inspire believers to exercise self-control as he describes, â€Å"Everyone who competes [for the prize] is temperate in all things† (1Corinthians 9:25a NKJV). Paul reveals that the  ability to manifest self-control is the by-product of the work of God’s Spirit within a believer’s life (Galatians 5:23). Abstinence a. Nazar—means â€Å"to separate, consecrate, or to dedicate.† For example, men who had consecrated themselves to God with a Nazarite vow â€Å"must give up (nazar) wine and other alcoholic drinks† (Numbers 6:3a NLT). Though certain individuals may choose to take a vow that requires abstinence, Miller (1995) asserts, â€Å"Nowhere in scripture is abstinence from alcohol prescribed as a general rule† (p. 78). He cautions, â€Å"Alcohol is now known, for example, to damage brain tissue, and measures of brain impairment are correlated with amount even in the ‘moderation’ range† (Miller, 1995, p. 78). b. Apexo—means â€Å"to hold one’s self off, refrain, or abstain.† The Bible teaches that God’s will is for believers to â€Å"abstain (apexo) from sexual immorality† (1Thessalonians 4:3). In fact, believers are commanded to â€Å"abstain from every form of evil† (1Thessalonians 5:22 NKJV). Scholars question whether a particular drug may be deemed as evil, requiring complete abstinence. Miller (1995) offers, â€Å"If a certain drug serves no good and useful purpose, and there is no known ‘safe’ level of use which does not cause harm (or risk of harm) to the person, then the use of that drug might be regarded in itself as sinful† (p. 81). He concludes, â€Å"As in the biblical view of alcohol, the appropriate use of chemicals is generally accepted in society† (p. 81). Comparing and Contrasting Biblical Views with Professional Views Addiction Defined As the rudder steers a ship, a counselor’s theory guides the counseling process. To effectively steer the therapeutic session of clients with addictions, counselors must understand the dynamics of addiction. Addiction is defined as â€Å"self-destructive behaviors that include a pharmacological component. The most stringent application would limit the term addiction and the companion label of addict to individuals with a physiological dependence on one or more illegal drugs.† (DiClemente, 2003, p. 3). Addiction involves â€Å"an escalating pattern involving tolerance (e.g., seeming to be relatively unaffected by ordinary doses) and dependence (e.g., relying  upon the drug to function or feel normal)† (Miller, 1995, p. 82). Still, over the past two decades, the definition of addiction has broadened to include â€Å"any substance use or reinforcing behavior that has an appetitive nature, has a compulsive and repetitive quality, is self-destructive, and is experi enced as difficult to modify or stop† (DiClemente, 2003, p. 4). Gambling, shopping, video games, internet pornography, negative view of body image, and even work may be included under the umbrella this broad definition of addiction (LaBerge, 2009, p. 13). The biblical definition of addiction coincides with the expanded definition, equating addiction with habitual self-absorbed behaviors which produce spiritual slavery. Welch (2001) clarifies, Addiction is bondage to the rule of a substance, activity, or state of mind, which then becomes the center of life, defending itself from the truth so that even bad consequences dont bring repentance, and leading to further estrangement from God. To locate it on the theological map, look under sin (p. 35). Etiology Counselors with clients who present with symptoms of alcohol and drug addiction need to have competencies such as an understanding of addiction, treatment knowledge, how to appropriately integrate treatment modalities, assessment, screening, and diagnostic insight (Treatment Improvement Exchange, 2010). Scholars debate the origin of addiction, as observed by the variety of proposed models of addiction. The models of addiction include: the disease (genetic/physiological) model, coping/social learning model, personality/intrapsychic model, compulsive/excessive behavior model, and the conditioning/reinforcement model (DiClemente, 2003, pp. 9-18). The disease model posits that alcoholism is the direct result of genetic influences. Yet, researchers demonstrate that â€Å"genetic factors account for approximately ‘half the risk for alcoholism.’† (Van Der Walde, Urgenson, Weltz, Hanna, 2002, p. 146). Miller (1993) noted how a pure disease model does not give any role to the psychological factors in treatment (p. 132). Still, there appear to be two types of alcoholism which researchers present as evidence for a genetic influence. Van Der Walde et al. (2002) describe, â€Å"The first is a severe form of early-onset alcoholism, which often presents  before age 21 and is characterized by a high density among first-degree relatives† (p. 146). The second form â€Å"does not appear until middle age and seems to be triggered by negative life events such as loss of a significant other or other environmental influences† (Van Der Walde et al., 2002, p. 146). The social/environment model emphasizes an individual’s lack of coping skills in response to life’s stressors in conjunction with vicarious learning of maladaptive behaviors from others (DiClemente, 2003, p. 13). The coping model theorizes that individuals who are unable to deal with life stressors seek to escape through their addiction, relying upon the addiction for comfort (DiClemente, 2003, p. 13). Pangle (2010) observes, â€Å"There seems to always be an emotional distress associated with addiction. This emotional distress finds relief [or so the addict thinks] in numbing out and finding a temporary ‘escape’ from the pain involved† (personal communication, January 28, 2010). Hester and Miller (2003) cite several coping skill deficits such as the â€Å"lack of adequate skills to regulate positive and negative mood states as well as to cope with social-interpersonal situations, including work, parenting, or marital relationships† (p. 213). Concerning the social learning aspect of this model, â€Å"several studies have shown that children and parents tend to exhibit similar drinking practices, indicating that observational learning plays some role in later alcohol use† (Ellis Zucker, 1997, p. 222). Soberingly, Dawson, Goldstein, Chou, Ruan, and Grant (2008) demonstrate that â€Å"individuals who started drinking before 15 years of age were significantly more likely to experience the incidence of alcohol dependence and alcohol abuse in adulthood than those who delayed initiation of drinking until 18 or older† (p. 2155). The personality/intrapsychic model seeks a connection between the intrapsychic conflicts within an individual or personality traits such as impulsivity, with substance abuse (DiClemente, 2003, pp. 11-12). The compulsive/excessive behavior model links â€Å"addiction with ritualistic compulsive behaviors like repeated hand-washing or cleaning rituals† (DiClemente, 2003, p. 16). The conditioning/reinforcement model relies upon reinforcement theory to explain the etiology of addiction. For example, the  intermittent schedule of reinforcement allotted for slot machines assures addictive usage for many patrons (Tavares, Zilberman, El-Guebaly, 2003, p. 23). The current literature appears to repudiate the view that physiological dependence is the key element that determines whether a person has an addiction. Instead, the emphasis has become the psychological component that develops and maintains addiction. Ksir et al. (2009) reveal, â€Å"Psychological dependence, based on reinforcement, is increasingly accepted as the real driving force behind repeated drug use (p. 36). They indicated that tolerance and physical dependence do not play as a major role as psychological dependence (Ksir et al., 2009, p. 36). Yet, Roberts and Koob (1997) contend that addiction is the by-product of the dual processes of reinforcement and neuroadaptation. They explain, â€Å"Working together, these factors appear to motivate the initial, short-term (i.e., acute) response to a drug and the establishment of the long-term (i.e., chronic) craving for the drug that characterizes addiction† (p. 102). It has been argued that the five models of addiction described above do not address the etiology and the treatment strategy of the addiction in a comprehensive way. DiClemente (2003) asserts, â€Å"There is also no single developmental model or singular historical path that can explain acquisition of and recovery from addictions† (p. 19). For instance, the prevalent view concerning alcoholism coincides with the disease model â€Å"which someone either ‘has’ or does not have and which has an inevitable progression to more and more drinking, then the only acceptable treatment goal is total abstinence† (Ksir et al., 2009, p. 430). The etiological view directly impacts treatment as seen with Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) which subscribes to the disease model, having total abstinence as the goal (Ksir et al., 2009, p. 430). Evidence-based research also demonstrates effectiveness of psychosocial approaches and indicates that the disease model is too limited in its pe rspective and application (Miller, 1993, p. 132). Still, Miller (1993) contends, â€Å"Dispositional disease views have remained strangely intermingled with moralistic attitudes toward people who are alcoholic, seeing alcoholics as prone to lie and deny their problem (p. 131). Therefore, this researcher leans more toward a biopsychosocial model which allows for more of a comprehensive view of the etiology and an eclectic approach to treatment. That is, â€Å"a descriptive model based on continua of severity and an etiologic model encompassing host, agent, and environmental factors† (Miller, 1993, p. 135). Instead of viewing alcoholism as a disease like diabetes (you either have it or you dont), this researcher favors using the analogy of having hypertension which is â€Å"genetically influenced yet quite responsive to psychosocial factors† (Miller, 1993, p. 134). Concerning the â€Å"bio† part of the biopsychosocial view, Scripture seems to endorse certain aspects of the disease model. However, the sickness ultimately appears to be sin (Isaiah 1:5-6). That is, an addiction such as alcoholism is the symptom of the sin disease (Galatians 5:21). Jesus refers to the disease model as an illustration of humanitys dilemma and combines this â€Å"sin disease model† with what seems to be the moral model with the call to repentance—which is the treatment (Mark 2:17). The â€Å"psycho† coincides with where Scripture instructs believers to â€Å"renew† their minds, identifying the association between thought and behavior (Ephesians 4:23). The â€Å"social† element is observed in how Paul warns, â€Å"Do not be misled: ‘Bad company corrupts good character’† (1Corinthians 15:33 NLT). For example, a person ought not hang out at the bar, or he will most likely drink. The Scriptural etiological view of addiction begins with an individual’s concept of self, God, and other relationships. For example, an addict could be viewed as a person who is unwilling to come to terms with his inaccurate view of self, God, and other relationships. In contrast, a psychologically healthy person is someone who has an accurate understanding of self and does not focus on self. McMinn (1996) instructs that â€Å"To be healthy, we need to move beyond a preoccupation with self† (p. 46). An unhealthy self-concept produces detrimental results. At one extreme, Nebuchadnezzar’s inflated view of self led to blind rage and insanity (Daniel 3:18-19; 4:30-34). On the other side of the spectrum, McMinn (1996) described a man with a low view of self which brought forth destructive behaviors such as drinking alcohol excessively (p. 47). A healthy view of self does not cause a person  to be lifted up with pride nor to be brought down to a permanent condition o f wallowing in utter self-loathing. Isaiah developed a balanced sense of self when he gained an accurate vision of God. Isaiah’s encounter with God produced genuine brokenness, forgiveness, and a sense of godly competence to fulfill the high call of God (Isaiah 6:1-8). The primary element that contributed to Isaiah’s healthy sense of self was his open recognition of need. McMinn (1996) asserts that â€Å"there is only one way to spiritual health, and that requires us to recognize that we need God† (pp. 48-49). Therefore, people who have a healthy sense of self recognize their own spiritual poverty and desperate need for God. The subjective, experiential sensing of â€Å"need† for God is an appropriate craving or â€Å"thirst.† Jesus pointed to Himself as the only One who truly satisfy this thirst (John 4:13-14). Assessment A person who describes an egg as a two-fold object composed of shell and egg white is missing the yolk, therefore lacking the complete definition. Similarly, clinicians who do not include spiritual assessment in gathering data will lack a holistic, â€Å"whole person† perspective of their clients. For example, Hodge (2005) asserts that â€Å"human beings are an integrated entity, consisting of body, soul, and spirit† (p. 316). This triune understanding of a human being’s composition is consistent with a biblical worldview (1Thessalonians 5:23). Still, it is not solely Christian clinicians who recognize the need to include a client’s spiritual background within the counseling setting. Hodge (2006) reveals, â€Å"Growing consensus exists that spiritual assessment is an important aspect of holistic service provision† (p. 317). Moreover, the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO), which is the largest health care accrediting body in the United States, â€Å"now requires the administration of spiritual assessment† (p. 317). A majority of clients have also expressed the desire to incorporate spirituality within the therapeutic setting (Hodge, 2006, p. 317). Spirituality is frequently at the core of how clients develop their worldview and coping skills (Hodge, 2005, p. 314). This understanding is vital for developing effective strategies with clients addicted to alcohol and drugs. Comprehensive, qualitative spiritual assessment methods include spiritual histories, spiritual lifemaps, spiritual genograms, spiritual ecomaps, and spiritual ecograms. Spiritual histories describe a format that uses questions â€Å"to explore spiritual and religious themes in the context of an empathic dialogue† (Hodge, 2001, p. 205). For example, the counselor presents open-ended questions with a spiritual theme to encourage clients to verbally share their spiritual narrative or story. Examples of questions a clinician may use include â€Å"When and in what ways do you feel close to the Divine?† and â€Å"How is God involved in your problems?† Two other assessment tools commonly used to identify the severity of alcohol problems are â€Å"the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the CAGE. These instruments are listed in the NIAAA Guide and are available in computerized versions† (Hester Miller, 2006, p. 37). These and other screening tools offer benefits such as providing â€Å"personalized feedback to clients in a timely and visually engaging manner† as well as â€Å"specific recommendations for change, based on the results of the assessment and other empirical evidence (Hester Miller, 2006, p. 37). Corresponding to the transtheoretical model (TTM), â€Å"a 12-item Readiness to Change scale has been developed as an efficient measure of three stages from the transtheoretical model: precontemplation, contemplation, and action† (Hester Miller, 2003, p. 100). Diagnosis Before a mechanic can fix a car with engine trouble, he first must identify the problem. Likewise, appropriate diagnosis precedes effective counseling. According to the American Psychiatric Association (APA) (2000), the DSM-IV-TR describes the diagnosis for 303.90 Alcohol Dependence as â€Å"indicated by evidence of tolerance or symptoms of Withdrawal. Especially if associated with a history of withdrawal, physiological dependence is an indication of a more severe clinical course overall† (p. 213). The diagnosis of 305.00 Alcohol Abuse â€Å"requires fewer symptoms and, thus, may be less severe than Dependence and is only diagnosed once the absence of Dependence is established† (APA, 2000, p. 214). Instead of being viewed categorically, that is, either a person has an  alcohol disorder or not, researchers suggest that problems or addictions be viewed as being in different dimensional phases. This perspective corresponds to the psychosocial problem theory. Maddux and Winstead (2008) explain, â€Å"Psychosocial problem theory sees the dimensional responses as the very problems for which people need help, and dimensional measures as sufficient to evaluate, communicate about, and remedy them† (p. 143). The criticism that disorder theory has received is because â€Å"disorder theory prescribes shifting the focus from concrete problem dimensions to abstract mental disorders† (Maddux Winstead, 2008, p. 143). This is not to say that categorizing disorders does not have benefits. Vieta and Suppes (2008) expound, Dichotomies are useful for education, communication, and simplification; unfortunately, simplicity is useful, but untrue, whereas complexity is true, but useless. In clinical practice, we may use current classifications, such as DSM-IV, as categorical backgrounds that may help in establishing treatment and prognosis (p. 165). Consequences Researchers have demonstrated that â€Å"alcohol use can increase adolescents’ exposure to risky situations, such as driving while intoxicated, engaging in unprotected sex, and confronting violent exchanges† (Hester Miller, 2003, p. 83). Price and Emshoff (1997) reveal, â€Å"Children of alcoholics (COAs) are at increased risk for a wide range of behavioral and emotional problems, including addiction to alcohol and other drugs (AODs), depression, anxiety, school failure, and delinquency† (p. 241). A major reason for the higher risk of problems in COA’s is because â€Å"cross-generational transmission of alcoholism increases in likelihood to the extent that alcoholism invades the family system and disrupts the enactment of family rituals; that is, patterns of behavior that give identity and meaning to the family† (Jacob, 1992, p. 323). Hester and Miller (2003) assert, â€Å"Persons drinking three to four drinks per day have a two- to threefold risk for accidents, stroke, liver disease, cancer, and hypertension† (p. 65). Scripture asserts that â€Å"there is a way that seems right to a man, But its end is the way of death† (Proverbs 14:12 NKJV). Intervention Strategies Researchers assert that clinicians working with clients addicted to alcohol need to â€Å"become more comfortable with†¦brief therapy intervention technique, and motivational interviewing† (Hester Miller, 2003, p. 69). Motivational interviewing, which â€Å"aims to increase a patient’s motivation to change, has been found effective in controlled clinical trials† (McCarty, Edmundson, Hartnett, 2006, p. 8). The stages of change according to the transtheoretical model (TTM) include precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance (DiClemente, 2003, p. 27). MI is helpful in addressing the client’s ambivalence and tipping the decisional balance toward change (Hester Miller, 2003, p. 65). For example, MI has helped motivate clients to move from the precontemplation stage to the contemplation stage or from the preparation stage to the action stage. Four key factors that define MI include expressing empathy, developing discrepancy, rolling with resistance, and supporting self-efficacy (Miller Rollnick, 2002, pp. 36-41). For example, the counselor conveys acceptance by incorporating listening skills such as reflective listening, paraphrasing, and clarifying. Empathy and acceptance promote an atmosphere conducive for change. To develop discrepancy, the client â€Å"rather than the counselor† is led to â€Å"present the arguments for change† (Miller Rollnick, 2002, p. 39). Empathy is characteristic of the person-centered approach and is considered â€Å"the most powerful determinant of client progress in therapy† (Corey, 2005, p. 173). Empathy disarms clients’ defenses and promotes trust within the therapeutic relationship. Empathy â€Å"involves demonstrating the act of listening to the subject and understanding the individual’s situation and the emotional reaction to it with the purpose of establishing a basic trust relationship† (Regini, 2004, p. 2). Without it, there will be no change. In fact, research has shown that the model of therapy is not what determines the effectiveness of therapy, but the quality of the therapeutic relationship. McKergow and Korman (2009) assert, â€Å"More important are the therapeutic alliance as seen by the client, allegiance of the therapist to their model of choice, placebo effects, and general therapist competence† (p. 46). Person-centered theory presumes that the quality of the relationship between the therapist and client is all that determines change (Kirschenbaum, 2004, pp. 116-117). Research has shown that the key predictor in achieving a successful outcome in treatment is a strong therapeutic relationship between the clinician and client (Jennings Skovhalt, 1999, p. 4). If clinicians do not establish trust in the first phase of the working alliance with their client, their client will be less likely to proceed to the next level that includes â€Å"shared responsibility for working out treatment goals† (Horvath Luborsky, 1993, p. 563). Clinton and Ohlschalger (2002) insist that trust is vital â€Å"†¦for without it the client too easily backs away from the difficult challenges inherent to change† (p. 205). Trust is established when the client perceives the counselor as caring, sensitive, sympathetic, and helpful (Horvath Luborsky, p. 564). Patients who do improve with medication often become less consistent with taking their medications over time. A strong alliance has been shown to help in this area. Strauss and Johnson (2006) reveal that â€Å"patients who reported stronger alliances with their providers reported more positive attitudes about medication and stigma. (p. 220). Spiritual, psychological, and emotional health is interwoven within the fabric of loving relationships. The author of Hebrews encourage believers to â€Å"consider one another in order to stir up love and good works, not forsaking the assembling of ourselves together, as is the manner of some, but exhorting one another, and so much the more as you see the Day approaching† (Hebrews 10:24-25 NKJV). There are necessary times for solitude but disaster awaits people who completely cut themselves off from authentic relationships. Solomon instructs, â€Å"A man who isolates himself seeks his own desire, he rages against all wise judgment† (Proverbs 18:1 NKJV). Therefore, clients are encouraged to join a small group Bible study, a men’s group, a women’s group, a cancer support group, or another group conducive to a client’s need. Solutions-focused brief therapy (SFBT) employs rapport-building techniques such as active listening. The counselor seeks to understand what the client wants through actively listening and echoes back the past, present, and  future desires of the client. In addition, active listening entails paraphrasing, summarizing, and asking questions. SFBT has been useful in walk-in sessions. Clinical interviewing techniques are â€Å"designed to move clients away from focusing primarily on the problem and toward a focus on solutions. Some of these ideas include attending to exceptions to the problem (already existing periods when the problem is not occurring)† (Slive, McElheran, Lawson, 2008, p. 14). Other treatment strategies for clients struggling with alcohol dependence and abuse include psycho-education, family therapy, behavior modification, detoxification, and 12-step programs such as Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) (Kanel, 2007, p. 176). Hester and Miller (2003) demonstrate, â€Å"Patients attending AA were significantly more likely to be abstinent than those not attending† (p. 182). They also provide a summary of treatment strategies by order of their effectiveness such as coping skills treatment (CST), cue exposure treatment (CET), community reinforcement approach (CRA), and community reinforcement and family training (CRAFT) (Miller Hester, 2003, pp. 218, 229-232, 237-240). Brewer (2008) presents an integrative Christian counseling grid called METAMORPH. He delineates that â€Å"METAMORPH integrative Christian counseling grid represents an eclectic approach to counseling that seeks to responsibly draw upon a plethora of counseling theories within the context of a Christian worldview† (Brewer, 2008). Truth drawn out from an individual’s life has the tendency to be more easily apprehended and embraced (Proverbs 20:5). For example, Brewer (2008) integrates choice theory techniques with exploratory questions such as: â€Å"What do you want? What are you doing to get what you want? How is it working for you? Is it the right thing to do?† When Adam and Eve were hiding in the garden, God asked them â€Å"Where are you?† God knew where they were, but He wanted them to become self-aware and to consider turning back to Him (Genesis 3:9-13). In like manner, Jesus asked His disciples important questions (Matthew 16:13, 15). Concerning pharmacotherapy, prescribing medications for mental disorders has been a controversial practice especially in Christian circles. This  researcher has been quite wary in the past about any type of drug therapy, because God has â€Å"given to us all things that pertain to life and godliness† through His divine power (2Peter 1:3a NKJV). In addition, Scripture is sufficient to help believers become complete and mature, â€Å"equipped for every good work† (2Timothy 3:17b NKJV). The two previous biblical references did not include mention of the need for medications. Yet, it is interesting that soon after, Paul describes one of the requirements for godly leadership as â€Å"not given to wine,† which means to not abuse alcohol or to not be addicted to wine. Two chapters later he instructs Timothy to personally use wine for a medicinal purpose (1Timothy 3:3a; 5:23 NKJV). This researcher currently holds the view that certain drugs including medications for brain chemical imbalances were given through God’s guidance to benefit humanity. However, just as there is a danger that wine may be abused and lead to tragic consequences, these medications have the potential of being abused. Clinton and Ohlschlager (2002) teach, â€Å"They [psychiatric medications] have tremendous potential to help people with problems that can destroy their lives psychologically, medically, and spiritually. However, they must be used with care and at the discretion of someone who is skilled in their administration† (p. 152). Drug therapies address the neurobiological dysfunctions which impair emotions and behavioral functioning. Medications are not necessarily the â€Å"silver bullet† in solving all the issues which challenge individuals any more than wine was the cure-all for Timothy’s problems. Rather, they may help promote enough emotional stability for a client to be able to receive input regarding other issues. An example of a medication that has been successful in the treatment of alcohol addiction is naltrexone, which â€Å"is an opiate-antagonist medication. Clinical trials suggest that naltrexone contributes to reductions in the frequency of drinking and severity of relapse among alcohol-dependent patients† (McCarty et al., 2006, p. 7). Personal Application As the rudder steers a ship, a counselor’s theory guides the counseling process. This researcher believes that a comprehensive counseling theory begins with a biblical worldview that evaluates psychological contributions,  human nature, and the systems that shape the human personality, and view of addiction through the lens of Scripture. Psychology often limits its focus to the study of the soul. The word â€Å"psychology† is a combination of the words -ology and psyche. The suffix -ology means â€Å"the study of.† The Greek word psyche in the Bible means â€Å"a living soul,† and it is also defined as â€Å"the seat of the feelings, desires, affections† (Blue Letter Bible, 2010). Therefore, psychology is the study of one of God’s works, the human soul. Theology derives meaning from His word, the Bible. Averbeck (2006) proposes that the â€Å"double knowledge† of psychology (knowledge of the human person) and biblical theology (the knowledge of God) is necessary. He expounds, â€Å"Neither one is complete in itself; both need the other†¦True wisdom is bringing the knowledge of God and people together in the midst of the mess which we are and in which we live. This is what the Bible and counseling are really all about† (p. 111). Therefore, this researcher seeks to integrate theology and psychology into his understanding of addiction. This researcher works in a psychiatric hospital setting. Alcohol dependence and abuse in particular is common within the patient population. Jeannette Sapp, a clinician at the hospital discloses, â€Å"Alcohol is the drug of choice for many patients because it is available, legal, and relatively inexpensive. Many patients self-medicate their particular disorder† (personal communication, February 16, 2010). The stages of change are going to become hospital policy concerning patient treatment. The supervisor has been encouraging clinicians to consider the specific stage of change each patient they are working with is in. This is a necessary step since each stage of change has different tasks which require appropriate corresponding interventions (DiClemente, 2003, p. 240). DiClemente (2003) asserts, The best way to mirror the process of change is to have a dynamic treatment protocol that can respond to being stuck at various stages as well as to movement through the stages of change (p. 250). It is helpful to understand that â€Å"addictions are understood as learned habits that once established become difficult to extinguish even in the face of dramatic, and, at times, numerous negative consequences† (Jenkins, n. d.). Since addictions are learned habits which develop through  the stages of change, they can be unlearned and replaced with healthy and helpful habits as the individual progresses through the stages of change. As applied to believers, Christians are to deal with ambivalence concerning the â€Å"tug of war† between sin and the new nature, and to move along the stages, becoming transformed into the image of Christ from glory to glory by God’s Spirit (Romans 7:7; 2Corinthians 3:18). Clinton and Ohlschlager (2002) clarify, â€Å"The effective Christian clinician will be a principled, biblically informed, and responsible eclectic who knows how to fit the right therapy with the right client at the right time and the right stage of living† (p. 176). Christian counselors are to model the divine Counselor. Jesus, the â€Å"Wonderful, Counselor† (Isaiah 9:6b), has all the qualities for promoting effective client outcomes: genuine compassion, ability to comfort, ability to challenge, and a provider of sanctuary for the client. Jesus said that â€Å"everyone who is perfectly trained will be like his teacher† (Luke 6:40b). Christian counselors know they will become like the best counseling teacher as they learn from the Master Himself (2Corinthians 3:18). Jennings and Skovhalt (1999) identified and defined the key characteristics of master therapists. They also gave credit to studies that describe effective therapists who have attributes such as compassion, sensitivity, and commitment to their clients’ well-being. These qualities describe love. Clinton and Ohlschlager (2002) insist that â€Å"the most important counseling tool is you† (p. 67). Tripp (2002) insists, â€Å"God never intended us to simply be objects of His love. We are also called to be instruments of that love in the lives of others† (p. 18). The goal of this writer is to become a competent and effective counselor. The starting point of reflecting His love is allowing Jesus to be the â€Å"first love.† The AACC code of ethics (2004) which states, â€Å"Christian counselors are dedicated to Jesus Christ as their ‘first love’† (p. 5), for He alone can truly equip and empower a person to be a tool filled with the agape love everyone needs (John 15:5; Acts 1:8). References American Association of Christian Counselors (AACC), (2004). AACC code of ethics. Forest, VA: AACC. American Psychiatric Association (APA) (2000). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders text revision (4th ed.). (DSM-IV-TR). Arlington, VA: Author. Averbeck, R. (2006). Creation and corruption, redemption and wisdom: A biblical theology foundation for counseling psychology. Journal of Psychology and Christianity, 25(2), 111-126. Blue Letter Bible (2010). Strong’s exhaustive concordance of the bible definitions for Hebrew and Greek words. Retrieved February 24, 2010 from http://www.blueletterbible.org/ Brewer, G. R. (2008). METAMORPH integrative Christian counseling grid. Retrieved February 25, 2010 from http://bb7.liberty.edu/webapps/portal/frameset.jsp?tab= coursesurl=/bin/common/course.pl?course_id=_568125_session_key= Ljv71oy4g41C9Q43R34dr24n53q99DWq35Qb7rTkBCp Bufford, R.K. (1997). Consecrated counseling: Reflections on the distinctive of Christian counseling. Journal of Psychology and Theology, 25, 111-122. Clinton, T., Ohlschlager, G. (Eds.). (2002). Competent Christian counseling: Foundations practice of compassionate soul care. Colorado Springs, CO: WaterBrook Press. Corey, G. (2005). Theory and practice of counseling and psychotherapy (7th ed.). Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole. Dawson, D., Goldstein, R., Chou, S., Ruan, W., Grant, B. (2008). Age at first drink and the first incidence of adult-onset DSM-IV alcohol use disorders. Alcoholism: Clinical Experimental Research, 32(12), 2149-2160. DiClemente, C. (2003). Addiction and change: How addictions develop and addicted people recover. New York, NY : The Guilford Press. Ellis, D., Zucker, R. (1997). The role of family influences in development and risk. Alcohol Health Research World, 21(3), 218-227. Feldman, R. (2008). Development across the life span. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Prentice Hall. Hester, R., Miller, J. (2006). Computer-based tools for diagnosis and treatment of alcohol problems. Alcohol Research Health, 29(1), 36-40. Hester, R., Miller, W. (2003). Handbook of alcoholism treatment approaches: Effective alternatives (3rd ed.). Boston, MA: Allyn and Bacon. Hodge, D. (2001). A review of major qualitative methods and a new framework for assessing spirituality. Social Work, 46(3), 203-214. Hodge, D. (2006). A template for spiritual assessment:  A revi ew of the JCAHO requirements and guidelines for implementation. Social Work, 51(4), 317-326. Hodge, D. (2005). Developing a spiritual assessment toolbox: A discussion of the strengths and limitations of five different assessment methods. Health Social Work, 30(4), 314-323. Hodge, D. (2005). Spiritual assessment in marital and family therapy: A methodological framework for selecting from among six qualitative assessment tools. Journal of Marital Family Therapy, 31(4), 341-356. Horvath, A., Luborsky, L. (1993). The role of the therapeutic alliance in psychotherapy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61(4), 561-573. Jacob, T. (1992). Family studies of alcoholism. Journal of Family Psychology, 5(3/4), 319-338. Jenkins, D. (n. d.). DiClemente Addiction-change. COUN711. Lynchburg, VA: Liberty University. Jennings, L., Skovhalt, T. M. (1999). The cognitive, emotional, and relational characteristics of master therapists. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 46, 3-11. Kanel, K. (2007). A guide to crisis intervention (3rd ed.). Belmont, CA: Brooks/Cole. Kirschenbaum, H. (2004). Carl Rogers’s life and work: An assessment on the 100th anniversary of his birth. Journal of Counseling Development, 82(1), 116-124. Ksir, C., Hart, C, Oakley, R. (2009). Drugs, society human behavior (13th ed.). New York, NY : McGraw-Hill. LaBerge, R. (2009) Addiction seen as a societal problem, not an individual one. CCPA Monitor, 16(3), 13-13. Maddux, J., Winstead, B. (Eds.). (2008). Psychopathology: Foundations for a contemporary understanding (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Routledge/Taylor Francis Group. McCarty, D., Edmundson, E., Hartnett, T. (2006). Charting a path between research and practice in alcoholism treatment. Alcohol Research and Health, 29(1), 1-10. McKergow, M. Korman, H. (2009). Inbetween—neither inside nor outside: The radical simplicity of solution-focused brief therapy. Journal of Systemic Therapies, 28(2), 34-49. McMinn, M. (1996). Psychology, theology, and spirituality in Christian counseling. Carol Stream, IL: Tyndale House. Miller, W. (1993). Alcoholism: Toward a better disease model. Psychology of addictive behaviors, 7(2), 129-136. Miller, W. (1995). Toward a biblical perspective on drug use. Journal of Ministry in Addiction Recovery, 2(2), 77-86. Miller, W., Rollnick, S. (2002). Motivational interviewing: Preparing people for change (2nd Ed.). New York, NY: Guilford Press. Mounce, W. (1993). The analytical lexicon to the Greek new testament. Grand Rapids, MI: Zondervan Publishing House. NIAA (2010). National institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism: Traffic crashes, traffic crash fatalities, and alcohol-related traffic crash fatalities, United States, 1982-2 004. Retrieved January 19, 2010, from http://www.niaaa.nih.gov/Resources/ DatabaseResources/ QuickFacts/TrafficCrashes/crash01.htm NIAA (2010). National institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism: Estimated economic costs of alcohol in the United States, 1992 and 1998. Retrieved January 19, 2010, from http://www.niaaa.nih.gov/Resources/DatabaseResources/QuickFacts /EconomicData/cost8.htm NIDA (2010). National institute on drug abuse: The science of drug abuse and addiction. Retrieved January 19, 2010, from http://www.nida.nih.gov/DrugPages/Alcohol.html Price, A., Emshoff, J. (1997). Breaking the cycle of addiction: Prevention and intervention with children of alcoholics. Alcohol Health Research World, 21(3), p241-246. Regini, C. (2004). Crisis intervention for law enforcement negotiators. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, 73(10), 1-6. Roberts, A., Koob, G. (1997). The neurobiology of addiction. Alcohol Health Research World, 21(2), 101-106. Slive, A., McElheran, N., Lawson, A. (2008). How brief does it get? Walk-in single session therapy. Journal of Systemic Therapies, 27(4), 5-22. Straus, J., Johnson, S. (2006). Role of treatment alliance in the clinical management of bipolar  disorder: Stronger alliances prospectively predict fewer manic symptoms. Psychiatry Research, 145, 215-223. Tavares, H., Zilberman, M., El-Guebaly, N. (2003). Are there cognitive and behavioural approaches specific to the treatment of pathological gambling? Canadian Journal of Psychiatry, 48(1), p22-27. Treatment Improvement Exchange (TIE) (2010). Appendix c: Addiction counseling competencies. Retrieved February 27, 2010, from http://tie.samhsa.gov/ Tripp, P. (2002). Instruments in the Redeemer’s hands: People in need of change helping people in need of change. Phillipsburg, NJ: P R Publishing Company. Van Der Walde, H., Urgenson, F., Weltz, S., Hanna, F. (2002). Women and alcoholism: A biopsychosocial perspective and treatment approaches. Journal of Counseling Development, 80(2), 145-154. Vieta, E., Suppes, T. (2008). Bipolar II disorder: arguments for and against a distinct diagnostic entity. Bipolar Disorders, 10, 163-170. Vine, W., Bruce, F. F. (Ed.) (1981). Vine’s expository dictionary of old and new testament words. Old Tappan, NJ: Fleming H. Revell Company. Webster, N., McKechnie, J. (Ed.). (1983). Webster’s new twentieth century dictionary (2nd ed.). New York: Simon and Schuster. Welch, E. (2001). Addictions—a banquet in the grave: Finding hope in the power of the Gospel. Phillipsburg, NJ: P R Publishing Company.